By Peter Baker and Maggie Haberman

WASHINGTON — The death of Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg on Friday (18) instantly upended the nation’s politics in the middle of an already bitter campaign, giving President Donald Trump an opportunity to try to install a third member of the Supreme Court with just weeks before an election that polls show he is currently losing.

The White House had already made quiet preparations in the days before Ginsburg’s death to advance a nominee without waiting for voters to decide whether to give Trump another four years. Sen. Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., the majority leader, vowed Friday night to hold a vote on a Trump nominee but would not say whether he would try to rush it through before the Nov. 3 vote in what would surely be a titanic partisan battle.

The sudden vacancy on the court abruptly transformed the presidential campaign and underscored the stakes of the contest between Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden, his Democratic challenger. It also bolstered Trump’s effort to shift the subject away from his handling of the coronavirus pandemic and remind Republicans why it matters whether he wins or not, while also potentially galvanizing Democrats who fear a change in the balance of power on the Supreme Court.

If Trump were able to replace Ginsburg, a liberal icon, it could cement a conservative majority for years, giving Republican appointees six of the nine seats. While Chief Justice John Roberts lately has sided at times with the four liberals on issues like immigration, gay rights and health care, he would no longer necessarily be the swing vote on a court with another Trump appointee.

The justice’s death presents a major challenge to McConnell, who blocked President Barack Obama from filling a vacancy on the bench in 2016 on the grounds that it should wait until after voters decided on a new president. That move rallied conservative support for Trump in the election and after his victory allowed him to put Justice Neil Gorsuch on the court.

Despite that precedent, McConnell has said that in case of an opening this year, he would try to push through a Trump nomination before the election, arguing that it was a different situation because this time the president and Senate majority are from the same party. But with just a 53-vote majority, it was not immediately clear whether he could hold his party behind such a move.

“Americans re-elected our majority in 2016 and expanded it in 2018 because we pledged to work with President Trump and support his agenda, particularly his outstanding appointments to the federal judiciary,” McConnell said in a statement Friday night. “Once again, we will keep our promise. President Trump’s nominee will receive a vote on the floor of the United States Senate.”

McConnell was notably unclear, however, about the timing, not saying explicitly whether he would hold such a vote before the election or wait until a lame-duck session afterward. A Trump administration official said there may not be enough time on the calendar to vote on a confirmation before the election.

McConnell sought to stave off defections in a letter later in the evening to fellow Republican senators, imploring them not to take a position until meeting with him in Washington. “I urge you all to keep your powder dry,” he wrote. “This is not the time to prematurely lock yourselves into a position you may later regret.”

Several members of McConnell’s caucus face tough election contests and might balk at seeming to rush a nominee through in such highly partisan conditions. McConnell, too, faces a vigorous challenge in his home state.

Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, the most endangered Republican incumbent, told The New York Times this month that she would not favour voting on a new justice in October. “I think that’s too close; I really do,” she said.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski of Alaska told an interviewer Friday shortly before the announcement of Ginsburg’s death that she opposed confirming a new justice before the election. “I would not vote to confirm a Supreme Court nominee,” she said. “We are 50 some days away from an election.”

Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, chair of the Senate Judiciary Committee, which would consider any nominee, said in 2018 that if an opening occurred in the last year of Trump’s term “we’ll wait to the next election,” but then hedged in July, telling CNN that “we’d have to see.” In a statement issued Friday night mourning Ginsburg, Graham, who is in a competitive race of his own, made no mention of when to fill the vacancy.

Sen. Charles Grassley of Iowa, who was previously the judiciary panel’s chair, likewise said in 2018 that if there were a vacancy in 2020 he would not bring a nomination before his committee until after the election if he were still in charge. But he has surrendered his gavel to Graham, and he did not say Friday night how he would vote as an individual senator. Nor did Sen. Mitt Romney of Utah, considered another possible defector.

Democrats immediately said they would fiercely resist any effort to confirm a justice before Inauguration Day, warning that Republicans should follow their own precedent from 2016.

“They must exhibit a shred of integrity and recognize that abandoning their word now, and breaking all precedents by ramming a nominee through — most likely after the election — would cause the nation tremendous pain,” said Sen. Patrick J. Leahy, D-Vt.

Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York, the Democratic leader, posted a Twitter message repeating McConnell’s own words from 2016: “The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new president.”

No one understood the broader political consequences of her death better than Ginsburg, who battled through one ailment after another in hopes of hanging onto her seat until after the election. Just days before her death, NPR reported, she dictated this statement to her granddaughter, Clara Spera: “My most fervent wish is that I will not be replaced until a new president is installed.”

On the campaign trail in recent days, Trump stressed the possibility that he could name more members to the court, rolling out a list of about 40 possible candidates he said he would consider. He was onstage Friday night at a rally in Minnesota when news of Ginsburg’s death arrived and, not aware of what had happened, told the crowd that he planned to name a conservative if given the opportunity.

In describing his potential nominees, he specifically named Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, joking that he would be unanimously confirmed because Cruz is so widely disliked by his colleagues, that they would love to see him go.

Cruz has already said he would not be interested in a seat on the court, and administration officials indicated they had other choices in mind. The broader list, they said, has been narrowed down to a much shorter one that includes at least one woman. Judge Amy Coney Barrett of the 7th US Circuit Court of Appeals, in Chicago, a favourite of conservatives, has often been mentioned by Trump’s advisers in the past.

Others on the list who have been on Trump’s previous rosters of candidates include Judges Thomas M. Hardiman of the 3rd Circuit, in Philadelphia; and William H. Pryor Jr. of the 11th Circuit, in Atlanta. The president also cited two other Republican senators, Tom Cotton of Arkansas and Josh Hawley of Missouri, as well as his former solicitor general, Noel J. Francisco.

White House advisers privately described Ginsburg’s death as a significant boost for Trump’s re-election chances. One person familiar with White House planning said that the new nominee will be announced sooner rather than later and that the White House hoped that McConnell would move forward with a vote. The president is likely to meet again with those on his shortlist in the coming days, the person familiar with the planning said.

-New York Times