El Niño yet to directly impact Sri Lanka, dry conditions expected by August
COLOMBO – The El Niño weather pattern developing globally has not yet had a direct impact on Sri Lanka, but its effects are expected to become more pronounced in the coming months, potentially leading to significantly reduced rainfall and drought conditions by early 2027, a senior Meteorology Department official said.
Deputy Director General of Meteorology Ajith Wijemanne said Sri Lanka is currently experiencing only indirect effects of the climate phenomenon, although some reduction in rainfall has already been observed in parts of the country.
Speaking at a media briefing in Colombo on Monday (22), Wijemanne said a weak El Niño condition has emerged in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to strengthen into a moderate or possibly strong event in the months ahead.
“At present, El Niño is not directly affecting Sri Lanka. However, some indirect impacts are already being felt, particularly a reduction in rainfall over the western slopes of the central hills due to a weakening of the south-west monsoon flow,” he said.
According to the Meteorology Department, rainfall has declined in some parts of the central highlands, while water levels in reservoirs used for hydropower generation have also shown a downward trend.
Despite this, periodic strengthening of the south-west monsoon continues to bring rainfall to parts of the Western, North Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces, as well as the southern coastal districts.
Meteorologists forecast a slight increase in rainfall on June 24 and 25, with intermittent showers expected through the remainder of the month in the Western, North Western and Sabaragamuwa Provinces and in the districts of Galle, Matara, Kandy and Nuwara Eliya.
However, rainfall is expected to gradually decline as July progresses.
Wijemanne warned that July and August are likely to experience below-average rainfall if El Niño conditions intensify as projected.
“Historically, El Niño tends to suppress rainfall during the south-west monsoon season, particularly during July and August. The impact is expected to become more visible after July and may be strongly felt across Sri Lanka by August,” he said.
The Meteorology Department cautioned that reduced wind speeds and weaker moisture-bearing air currents associated with El Niño could further limit rainfall during the latter part of the monsoon season.
While drier conditions are anticipated during mid-year, officials said rainfall could increase above normal levels during the second inter-monsoon season in October and November.
“We cannot simply say that El Niño always means less rain. It can influence rainfall patterns in different ways. While we expect lower rainfall in July and August, there is a possibility of above-normal rainfall later in the year,” Wijemanne said.
Looking ahead, meteorologists warned that if El Niño strengthens further, Sri Lanka could face severe dry conditions during the first quarter of 2027.
“After December, the direct impact of El Niño may result in drought conditions during January, February and March next year. Rainfall could decrease significantly, while temperatures are expected to rise substantially,” Wijemanne said.
Such conditions could affect agriculture, water resources, power generation and other sectors of the economy, prompting authorities to closely monitor developments and prepare mitigation measures.
The Meteorology Department said it would continue to assess global climate indicators and provide regular updates as the El Niño event evolves.
-ENCL
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