By Devirupa Mitra

NEW DELHI – Connectivity would be the major theme for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s discussions with visiting Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe, during which political positions will be articulated proforma but remain largely in the backseat.

The 74-year-old Sri Lankan leader arrived in New Delhi on Thursday (20) evening and has a full day of official meetings on Friday (21). This is his first visit as president after taking over the post in July 2022.

In all, he will be in Delhi for just around 27 hours during which he will meet with the prime minister, national security adviser Ajit Doval, external affairs minister S. Jaishankar and call on President Draupadi Murmu.

In the run-up to his India visit, the Tamil issue has been getting some attention due to a recent spurt in activity on this front. On Monday (17), the largest group of Tamil parliamentarians, the Tamil National Alliance (TNA) wrote an open letter to Modi asking him to urge Wickremesinghe to meet commitments under the Indo-Lanka accord to devolve police and revenue powers to the provinces.

A day later, Wickremesinghe met with Sri Lankan Tamil lawmakers, but it was clear that there was no bridging the gaps between the two sides.

Sources said India will articulate the standard positions on the full implementation of the 13th Amendment. However, there is not much expectation from New Delhi that Wickremesinghe holds the political clout to move the needle on this sensitive subject, said a person involved in the discussions.

Wickremesinghe is the sole Member of Parliament from his party, the United National Party (UNP), who is supported by the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP). “Even if he has the genuine political will, he doesn’t have the mandate,” said a source.

However, New Delhi hopes that Wickremesinghe will have more scope for moving forward on Indian development projects.

There has always been a bit of disappointment with Wickremesinghe in New Delhi as many Indian projects were stuck during his stint as prime minister under the Maithripala Sirisena presidency. India had hoped that Sirisena, who succeeded Mahinda Rajapaksa, would be friendlier to Indian interests and keep China at bay. It had also accordingly tempered its position on the reconciliation issue to not politically rock the government.

But, the open bickering between Sirisena and Wickremesinghe meant there was hardly any progress on any of the projects. During Wickremesinghe’s visit to India as prime minister in 2018, the Indian side had a general line that the progress on projects were ‘reviewed’.

However, there was no such diplomatese from Wickremesinghe’s office, which issued a statement that the Indian prime minister had “expressed his discontent over the response of the Sri Lankan government towards the assistance given by India”. It was largely seen as an effort to put the blame entirely on Sirisena and take away any pressure on him from New Delhi for the slow pace of work.

At the time, the major point of contention was the East Container Terminal at Colombo port which had been given to India and Japan. It was seen by India as a strategic move especially with China developing the Colombo International Container Terminal.

After the Rajapaksas were back at the helm, Sri Lanka unilaterally terminated the tripartite agreement. In October 2021, Adani Group signed a deal, which was largely seen as a compromise, to develop the West Container terminal.

Since he took over as President last year, Wickremesinghe has been battling the economic crisis with Sri Lanka defaulting on its foreign debt for the first time. It had been a rocky start especially over the visit by a Chinese ship, but India has offered nearly $4 billion in financial assistance to Sri Lanka during this crisis. However, New Delhi’s purse strings are not open any more.

Indian officials believe that IMF’s approval of a $3 billion loan has opened doors for other funding channels and the situation has stabilised, giving Wickremesinghe the space to look at other issues.

As per sources, there is an expectation that Wickremesinghe will move faster on India-related projects as he is unlikely to face much domestic pushback on the issue this time. There is no likelihood of the parliament being dissolved for an election any time soon, with most lawmakers from the ruling coalition expected to lose their seats. Announcements on accelerating flagship Indian projects after the main talks on Friday are likely.

China is Sri Lanka’s largest bilateral creditor, with whom it is in the midst of debt-restructuring talks. Therefore, it would be difficult to visualise that Colombo will take any steps that will annoy Beijing – or for that matter, India, at this crucial juncture. Sri Lanka will likely walk a fine line between the two countries, without alienating either.

For India, the focus for Wickremesinghe’s visit is on connectivity, with greater integration with the Indian economy as the underlying theme. Sources pointed out that there is potential for more sea and air links between the two countries, and digitization of financial transactions would also be added to that package. “Indians are already the largest source for tourism in Sri Lanka. More links will only boost that sector,” said an official.

As per official figures, India’s overall trade volume in 2021 was $5.4 billion – an increase of 48% from the pandemic year of 2020. China has also emerged as Sri Lanka’s top trading partner in recent years.

India has also been keen to revive talks for an Economic and Technological Cooperation Agreement (ETCA) with Sri Lanka, which will expand an existing free trade agreement (FTA) that had begun and stalled during the Sirisena presidency. This will certainly be on the agenda, sources confirmed, with India having revised its position on FTAs and signed a slew of them in the last couple of years.

-Devirupa Mitra is Deputy Editor and Diplomatic Correspondent at The Wire where this article was originally featured