Rupee slide risks higher fuel costs, inflation pressure warns ADB economist

Sri Lanka
By Editor_1

COLOMBO – Sri Lanka’s weakening rupee is likely to add further pressure on fuel costs and inflation, an economist from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) warned, as the currency slipped from around 300 to 315 against the US dollar.

“Currency depreciation, as you know, amplifies the cost of oil imports, and that can also add to imported inflation pressures for the country,” Liliya Aleksanyan, Senior Country Economist of the ADB Sri Lanka office, told reporters after the release of the ADB’s 2026 economic outlook.

Sri Lanka imports all of its fuel requirements, meaning a weaker rupee raises the cost of petroleum, gas and other energy imports. Depreciation also pushes up the local currency prices of imported food, medicine and industrial goods, while increasing the rupee value of export commodities.

The Sri Lankan rupee was trading around 315.5 to the US dollar this week, having weakened by more than 5% over the past year.

Concerns have been raised by analysts over the rapid build-up of excess liquidity in the banking system during 2025, with critics pointing to large-scale buy-sell swaps and foreign exchange interventions as factors contributing to pressure on the currency.

The rupee’s depreciation gathered pace through 2025 and into 2026, despite the central bank continuing to accumulate reserves. The Central Bank of Sri Lanka said net foreign exchange purchases amounted to 49 million US dollars in March 2026, while year-to-date rupee depreciation stood at 1.7% as of early April.

The ADB has forecast Sri Lanka’s inflation to rise to 5.2% in 2026, driven largely by higher electricity and fuel prices, before easing to around 4.6% the following year. The lender also warned that higher fertilizer costs could increase food prices and place additional pressure on low-income households.

Official data show Colombo inflation rose to 2.2% in March from 1.6% in February, with higher food, transport and utility costs contributing to the increase. Fuel prices have also risen sharply amid ongoing instability in the Middle East.

-ENCL

Editor_1
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