By Patrick Kingsley

JERUSALEM — Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s opposition leader, extended his lead on Wednesday (2) in Israel’s fifth election since 2019, but the final result remained unclear because of the uncertain fate of three small parties that could block him from power.

With more than 80% of the vote counted, Israel’s three main broadcasters projected that Netanyahu’s party, Likud, would finish first and that his right-wing bloc could be increasingly sure of forming a majority in Parliament.

If the results hold, they would propel Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, back to power with an even bigger majority than exit polls predicted late on Tuesday (Nov 1).

Regardless of Netanyahu’s fate, the results already constitute a watershed victory for a far-right alliance that is set to become the third-largest bloc in Parliament, and the second-largest in Netanyahu’s coalition.

A marginal force until recently, that alliance can now push to significantly reshape Israeli society as it seeks to reduce checks and balances on lawmakers, give politicians more control over the appointment of judges, end Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied West Bank and legalize a form of corruption that Netanyahu is accused of committing.

Official results are not expected until Friday (4). And the outcome of the election still hinges on the fate of three small parties — a leftist party, an Islamist party and a Palestinian nationalist party — that are likely to block a majority for Netanyahu if they win enough votes to cross the threshold needed to enter Parliament.

On Wednesday afternoon, only one of the three groups seemed to have reached safety, while two others were in danger of falling just short, hugely reducing leftist and Arab representation in Parliament.

But with the three parties each only needing to win 3.25% of the overall votes, pollsters said it was too soon to rule them out, particularly with up to half a million votes still to be counted.

If the current tallies stand, however, Netanyahu will be in position to return to office even as he stands trial on corruption charges, 16 months after he lost power.

One of his main far-right allies, Itamar Ben-Gvir, wants to grant legal immunity to Israeli soldiers who shoot at Palestinians and to deport rival lawmakers he accuses of terrorism. Until recently, he hung a portrait in his home of Baruch Goldstein, who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994.

“The time has come for us to be the landlords of our country,” Ben-Gvir said in a speech early on Wednesday morning as supporters chanted “death to terrorists”.

Speaking later, Netanyahu struck a more conciliatory tone. “If the true results reflect the projections, I will establish a national government that will look after everyone,” Netanyahu said.

He spoke of “restoring national pride” in the Jewish state, but he added that Israel was a country that “respects all its citizens”.

Nevertheless, analysts say that Netanyahu will most likely need to pursue hard-line policies to keep Ben-Gvir and his far-right allies placated. Ben-Gvir’s alliance is pushing for control of ministries that oversee the army and the police, and Netanyahu made no mention of his allies’ divisive proposals to overhaul and weaken the justice system.

The strong showing of Netanyahu’s bloc highlighted how it had successfully presented the election as a chance to reinforce the country’s Jewish identity.

Prime Minister Yair Lapid’s departing government united political opponents from the right, left and centre, and included the first independent Arab party to join an Israeli governing coalition.

That diversity seemed to unsettle right-wing Jewish voters, some of whom said that it undermined Israel’s Jewish character. Right-wing voters also said they sought a government that would dispel the sense of instability and danger they felt during a surge of riots between Arabs and Jews in May 2021.

Tomer Cohen, 46, a bus driver who voted for Ben-Gvir’s bloc, cited those security fears, saying, “I want a Jewish state and not a state of all its citizens.”

Lapid’s government also angered ultra-Orthodox voters by raising taxes on goods often used by their community and by trying to reduce their leaders’ influence over aspects of public life.

“More than half the people had enough of the previous government,” Aryeh Deri, the leader of an ultra-Orthodox party in Netanyahu’s bloc, told reporters overnight. “A government that did not see them,” Deri added. “A government that did not consider them. A government that endangered the Jewish character of the state.”

“All of this is finished,” he said.

-New York Times