Japan is set for its first female prime minister

By Javier C. Hernández, River Akira Davis and Hisako Ueno

TOKYO — Sanae Takaichi, a hard-line conservative lawmaker, won a critical leadership vote Saturday (4), putting her on track to become Japan’s first female prime minister, a milestone in a country where women are vastly underrepresented in politics.

Takaichi, 64, prevailed in an election by the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) after two rounds of voting by lawmakers and rank-and-file members. Her victory could herald a rightward shift in Japan, where antiestablishment politicians have recently made gains with voters concerned about stagnant wages, rising prices and an influx of foreign workers and tourists.

Takaichi, in a short speech after her victory before a crowd of LDP leaders gathered at party headquarters in Tokyo, promised to “work, work and work” and exhorted her colleagues to “work as hard as a carriage horse.”

“I am determined to confront various issues rather than feel happy,” she said.

Takaichi, who is expected to be named prime minister of Japan’s coalition government during an extraordinary session of parliament in mid-October, would succeed Shigeru Ishiba, who announced last month his intent to resign after about a year in office.

Takaichi’s election suggests that the power brokers of the LDP, the broad-tent conservative group that has been Japan’s dominant political force for 70 years, believe she is the party’s best shot at a comeback. The LDP has suffered bruising defeats in elections over the past year, leaving it in the unusual position of being a minority in both houses of the parliament, known as the Diet.

The LDP’s troubles have created an opening for populist parties, which have gained strength recently with a “Japanese First” message. Her election could be a sign of the growing popularity of right-wing ideology in Japan.

“Trumpism has suddenly arrived in Asia,” said Katsuyuki Yakushiji, a political analyst in Tokyo.

The rise of Takaichi, an ally of Shinzo Abe, the former prime minister assassinated in 2022, could heighten tensions with neighbours like China and South Korea. Takaichi’s hawkish, nationalist stance — including her regular visits to the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, which honours Japan’s war dead, including Class A war criminals from the World War II era — has long been a source of diplomatic strain with Beijing and Seoul.

Takaichi has suggested she could take a tougher approach in dealing with the Trump administration, which has imposed tariffs on Japan and other Asian allies. She was the only candidate who said during the campaign that she would consider renegotiating a recent trade deal with the United States, though at a news conference Saturday, she said she would work to preserve the agreement.

Japan, after finalizing a trade deal with the Trump administration in July, received a lower-than-threatened 15% across-the-board tariff on its exports in exchange for a commitment to inject $550 billion into the U.S. economy.

While the two countries have recently resolved several ambiguities in the trade agreement, a significant wrinkle remains: the details of how Japan will deploy that $550 billion in investment, loans and loan guarantees.

But in the short term, Takaichi, who spent two years working in the United States in the 1980s, will probably seek a warm relationship with President Donald Trump, who was close to Abe, analysts said. Trump is set to visit Asia in late October and might stop in Japan.

“In the near term, she’s more likely to rely on shared affection for Abe, ideological affinities and perhaps Takaichi’s personal history in the United States to achieve a reset of sorts with Trump,” said Tobias Harris, the founder of the advisory firm Japan Foresight.

While Takaichi’s victory is a landmark for Japan — she is the first woman to lead the Liberal Democratic Party in its 70-year history — she is not seen as a champion of women’s rights.

Takaichi has opposed legal changes that would allow women to reign as emperor. And she has previously spoken out against the idea of changing the century-old law requiring married couples to share a surname for legal purposes, saying that revising the law could lead to divorce or extramarital affairs. She has also opposed same-sex marriage.

There are only two women in Ishiba’s 20-person Cabinet, and women make up only about a fifth of parliament. During the campaign, Takaichi vowed to strike a gender balance in her Cabinet that would emulate Nordic countries, which can typically be closer to 50%.

Mieko Nakabayashi, a political science professor at Waseda University in Tokyo, said that Takaichi had often acted as a “roadblock” to feminist causes.

“She doesn’t seem to have deep convictions on women’s issues,” Nakabayashi said. “Women’s rights don’t seem to be on the agenda.”

Takaichi, whose mother was a police officer and whose father worked for a car company, was first elected to parliament in 1993 from Nara prefecture in western Japan. In Saturday’s election, she beat out four men for the party’s top post, including Shinjiro Koizumi, the 44-year-old agricultural minister who was seen as the favourite heading into Saturday’s election. Takaichi drew strong support from the LDP’s rank-and-file voters, and in a runoff Saturday afternoon against Koizumi, she received 185 votes compared with Koizumi’s 156.

While analysts expect that Takaichi will eventually be able to win the support needed in the Diet to be named prime minister later this month, she could face hurdles.

The LDP governs Japan through a long-standing coalition with its junior partner, Komeito, a centrist party backed by the Buddhist organization Soka Gakkai and known for prioritizing social welfare and pacifist principles. But Komeito has indicated it would consider dissolving the alliance if a staunchly right-wing figure, such as Takaichi, were to become party leader, as such a choice could alienate its moderate voter base.

Takaichi’s victory reflects the party’s efforts to address voters’ concerns about the economy, immigration and other matters. The government has faced pressure recently to place new limits on the number of immigrants and to restrict real estate purchases by foreigners.

During the campaign, Takaichi was blunt, blaming foreigners for kicking the cherished deer in Nara, where she is from, and doing pullups on gates outside sacred shrines.

Takaichi has also been an outlier among the candidates in her plans for the Japanese economy. While her rivals broadly backed the Bank of Japan’s efforts to gradually increase interest rates to combat inflation, Takaichi has instead espoused a return to ‘Abenomics’ — a platform of low interest rates coupled with broad fiscal spending.

But in the near term, reviving the LDP’s political fortunes is likely to remain a priority.

Takaichi promised Saturday to “make the LDP a determined and bright party.”

“I will make the party convert people’s concerns into hope,” she said.

-New York Times