Election at hand, Biden leads Trump in four key states, poll shows

World
By Editor_1
President Joe Biden’s decision to strike Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria early on Monday (28) illustrated the delicate balancing act of his approach to Tehran - Ruth Fremson/THE NEW YORK TIMES
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By Alexander Burns and Jonathan Martin

WASHINGTON – Joe Biden holds a clear advantage over President Donald Trump across four of the most important presidential swing states, a new poll shows, bolstered by the support of voters who did not participate in the 2016 election and who now appear to be turning out in large numbers to cast their ballots, mainly for the Democrat.

Biden, the former vice president, is ahead of Trump in the Northern battlegrounds of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, as well as in the Sun Belt states of Florida and Arizona, according to a poll of likely voters conducted by The New York Times and Siena College. His strength is most pronounced in Wisconsin, where he has an outright majority of the vote and leads Trump by 11 points, 52% to 41%.

Biden’s performance across the electoral map appears to put him in a stronger position heading into Election Day than any presidential candidate since at least 2008, when in the midst of a global economic crisis Barack Obama captured the White House with 365 Electoral College votes and Biden at his side.

Trump’s apparent weakness in many of the country’s largest electoral prizes leaves him with a narrow path to the 270 Electoral College votes required to claim victory, short of a major upset or a systemic error in opinion polling surpassing even the missteps preceding the 2016 election. Should Biden’s lead hold in three of the four states tested in the survey, it would almost certainly be enough to win, and if he were to carry Florida, he would most likely need to flip just one more large state that Trump won in 2016 to clinch the presidency.

In the closing days of the campaign, Biden has a modest advantage in Florida, where he is ahead of Trump by 3 points, 47% to 44%, a lead that is within the margin of error. He leads by 6 points in both Arizona and Pennsylvania. In no state did Trump’s support climb higher than 44%.

The margin of error is 3.2 percentage points in Wisconsin and Florida; 3 points in Arizona and 2.4 points in Pennsylvania.

-New York Times

 

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