Leak suggests US could try to press Israel to provide lethal aid to Ukraine

World
By Editor_1
Ukrainian soldiers sit on an armoured vehicle as they drive on a road between Izium and Lyman, in the retaken areas in Ukraine, on October 4, 2022 -Francisco Seco/AP
By Isabel Kershner

JERUSALEM — One of the secret Pentagon documents that was exposed on social media lays out an American assessment of scenarios that could lead Israel to provide lethal weapons to Ukraine — in contravention of current Israeli policy.

Israel’s policy so far has been to offer humanitarian assistance. It is also working with Ukraine to develop a custom-made, smart early-warning system to help Ukraine defend itself against incoming rockets and missiles.

But Israel has rebuffed Ukrainian requests to supply it with more robust weaponry for air defence, such as Israel’s vaunted Iron Dome missile interception system, and has ruled out providing it with offensive weapons.

Israel has tried to maintain a delicate balancing act, helping Ukraine mainly in the civilian sphere while avoiding provoking Russia. Russia has a military presence in Syria, where Israel conducts frequent airstrikes against Iranian and pro-Iranian targets.

Senior US officials said the FBI was working to determine the source of the leaked documents. The officials acknowledged that the documents appeared to be legitimate intelligence and operational briefs compiled by the Pentagon’s Joint Staff, using reports from the government’s intelligence community, but that at least one document had been modified from the original at some point.

The leaked document on lethal aid, marked as a top secret “exploratory analysis” and dated Feb. 28, states that Israel is committed to providing Ukraine with intelligence and nonlethal defensive systems while working to preserve Israel’s freedom of action in Syria by balancing its ties with the United States and Russia. But it adds that Israel would probably consider providing lethal aid to Ukraine under increased US pressure or a perceived degradation in its ties to Russia.

The “most plausible” of four options laid out in the assessment is that Israel could adopt the “Turkish model” under US pressure and provide lethal defence systems through third parties while advocating a peaceful conclusion to the war in Ukraine and offering to host mediation efforts. The document notes that Turkey has successfully maintained cordial relations with Russia while facilitating arms transfers to Ukraine.

The other three outlined situations that could encourage Israel to provide lethal aid, on a sliding scale of plausibility, involve Russia’s transferring strategic systems to Iran, Israel’s archenemy, or expanding assistance to Iran’s missile or nuclear programs; the United States’ using its leverage should Israel seek increased support for its operations against Iran; and Russia’s incurring Israeli casualties by employing sophisticated air defence systems against Israeli warplanes operating in Syria, thus complicating Israel’s relations with Russia.

For years, Israel and Russia have maintained a deconfliction mechanism to avoid fatal errors in Syria. Israeli officials notify their Russian counterparts about impending strikes as Israel tries to stem the flow of arms that Iran sends to its proxies in both Syria and Lebanon and to limit a military buildup on its northern border.

The document lists Israeli weapons that could be transferred to Ukraine, including the Barak-8 and Spyder surface-to-air missiles and Spike anti-tank guided missile.

A senior Israeli official, speaking on the condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the leaked assessment publicly, said on Sunday that Israel had taken “a very clear stand in support of Ukraine since Day 1 and had decided to focus on humanitarian aid,” mostly because of Israel’s strategic interests regarding Russia’s influence and the Iranian presence in Syria.

-New York Times

 

 

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