By Adam Rasgon, Aaron Boxerman, Isabel Kershner and Ismaeel Naar

WASHINGTON – Israel and Hamas are “on the brink” of agreeing to declare a ceasefire in the Gaza Strip and release hostages held there, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Tuesday (14), raising hopes for some respite to the violence after more than 15 months of war.

“It’s right on the brink, it’s closer than it’s ever been before,” Blinken said at an Atlantic Council event in Washington. “But right now as we sit here we await the final word from Hamas on its acceptance. And until we get that word, we’ll remain on the brink.”

Neither Israeli nor Hamas officials have publicly confirmed their position on the ceasefire proposal, although Blinken suggested that Israel was on board with the agreement and that its fate now rested with Hamas.

US officials have made optimistic remarks about ceasefire talks in the past only for negotiations to break down repeatedly into mutual recrimination.

But in recent weeks, officials familiar with the talks have expressed increasing hope for a deal.

Officials in both the Israeli government and Hamas have suggested that they are ready to move forward if the other side signs off. On Monday (13), a Hamas official said a deal was possible in the coming days as long as Israel did not suddenly change its positions. On Tuesday, an Israeli official said Israel was ready to close the deal and was waiting for Hamas to make a decision.

Some officials have also suggested that a looming deadline was helping to close the gap: the end of President Joe Biden’s term and President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan. 20.

Mediators had “managed to minimize a lot of the disagreements between both parties,” Majed al-Ansari, the spokesperson for the Qatari Foreign Ministry, told reporters Tuesday. The talks were focused on “the final details of reaching an agreement,” he said.

But mediators, which include Qatar, Egypt and the United States, and other officials have warned that even substantial progress could be dashed at the last minute.

“We believe that we are at the final stages, but until we have an announcement — there will be no announcement,” al-Ansari said, adding that there was no immediate timeline for signing a deal.

Trump has warned that there will be “all hell to pay” unless the hostages are freed by the time he becomes president. Steve Witkoff, Trump’s pick for Middle East envoy, has also made trips to Qatar and Israel, meeting with top officials there, including Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel on Saturday (11). (Witkoff is also the co-chair of Trump’s inaugural committee, which is in charge of next week’s ceremony.)

If Hamas and Israel conclude an agreement, it will bring some relief to Palestinians in Gaza, who have endured miserable conditions in displacement camps and relentless bombardments by Israel, and for the families of hostages abducted from Israel, who have worried for more than a year about the fate of their loved ones.

“I pray this time the return is real,” said Manar Silmi, 34, a psychologist with an international aid group, who was hoping to head back to the Gaza City home she had fled early in the war. “We’ve suffered more than enough.”

A framework agreement had been sent to both sides, said al-Ansari, adding that the talks now centred on “outstanding details” about how the deal would be implemented.

In a statement, Hamas also said that the negotiations “had reached their final stages.” The Palestinian armed group’s leadership “hoped that this round of talks would end with a complete and clear agreement,” Hamas said.

Hamas officials negotiating in Doha, Qatar, must obtain the consent of the group’s remaining military commanders in Gaza for the emerging deal. Those commanders include Mohammad Sinwar, whose brother Yahya led the group before being killed by Israel in September. Communicating with them can be difficult, leading to delays.

It was still not clear whether Sinwar had conveyed his position toward the ceasefire proposal to Hamas leaders in Doha.

The framework of the deal was heavily inspired by previous proposals discussed in May and July, said a diplomat familiar with the talks, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss the volatile negotiations. Those proposals detailed a three-stage ceasefire in which Israeli troops would gradually withdraw from Gaza, as Hamas released hostages in exchange for Palestinians jailed by Israel.

For over a year, international efforts have failed to end the war ignited by the Hamas-led attack that killed around 1,200 people in October 2023. Another 250 people were taken hostage to Gaza, according to Israeli authorities. In response, Israel launched a military campaign against Hamas that destroyed large areas of the enclave and killed at least 45,000 people, according to Gaza health officials, who do not distinguish between civilians and combatants.

Around 105 hostages were released during a weeklong ceasefire in November 2023, the bodies of others were recovered by Israeli troops, and a handful were rescued alive. Roughly 98 hostages are now believed to remain in Gaza, around 36 of whom are presumed dead by Israeli authorities.

During the first phase of the proposed ceasefire — which would last roughly six weeks — Hamas would release 33 named hostages, most of whom Israel believes are alive, said an Israeli official, who requested anonymity to discuss the sensitive talks. Israel is willing to release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners in exchange, the official said, but the number depends on how many of the hostages are still alive.

Eli Albag, whose daughter Liri, 19, was abducted from the military base where she served during the Hamas-led attack, met with Netanyahu on Tuesday evening alongside other relatives of hostages.

Netanyahu projected optimism, Albag said. But he said he still found it hard to think about what it might be like to welcome his daughter home.

“We want to see the deal signed first,” he said. “After that, we’ll make room for other thoughts.”

While there is significant public pressure in Israel to reach a deal to free the hostages, many Israelis also fear that a ceasefire would leave Hamas in power in Gaza, allowing its fighters to regroup and plan more attacks down the road.

Two of Netanyahu’s hard-line coalition allies — Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich — have already denounced the proposed agreement as an effective surrender to Hamas. The two far-right parties could threaten Netanyahu’s government if they withdrew from his ruling coalition in protest.

The agreement would likely still go through, as Israel’s parliamentary opposition has mostly committed to giving Netanyahu a safety net to secure a ceasefire and hostage deal. But it is unclear how long that would last, as it would leave Netanyahu’s political future dependent on rivals who have vowed to oust him.

In Gaza, Montaser Bahja, a displaced English teacher sheltering in Gaza City, said Palestinians were starting to feel hopeful about a deal after more than a year of hunger and deprivation.

But even if both sides declared a ceasefire, many Palestinians in Gaza were frightened by their uncertain post-war future, Bahja said. And even if Hamas’ deal secured the release of hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, few would see that as an achievement given the scale of the death and devastation in Gaza, he said.

“Everything is up in the air,” he said. “At this point, people just want it to end.”

-New York Times