By Munza Mushtaq

COLOMBO – Sri Lanka’s first presidential election since an economic crisis tipped the government into turmoil two years ago will focus attention on whether the unelected incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe can hold on to his position.

United National Party’s Wickremesinghe assumed the presidency after Gotabaya Rajapaksa was ousted in the political upheaval of 2022 and the 75-year-old now faces three main competitors – of whom opposition leader Sajith Premadasa is the most popular – in an election next month. A total of 39 candidates have entered the race to win the five-year term.

Whoever comes into power after the vote on Sept. 21 will not only have to oversee Sri Lanka’s economic recovery and negotiations over an International Monetary Fund (IMF) bailout but must also navigate the geopolitical landscape at a time of heightened tensions. Sri Lanka’s strategic location in the Indian Ocean means major powers like China, India and the US all have vested interests in its stability.

“Our geographic location and relevance to many countries, in and outside the region, makes this election very significant,” said Sri Lankan historian George I. H. Cooke. “It’s natural for them to be concerned about who will win as they would be interested to know foreign policy trends and how the situation will unfold.”

For that reason, 38-year-old Namal Rajapaksa, representing the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) party, is expected to fail, given that members of his family presided over the worst economic meltdown in the country’s history. Namal is a descendant of the powerful Rajapaksa family, nephew of Gotabaya and son of another former president, Mahinda.

A June survey, the latest available, conducted by the nonprofit research outfit Institute for Health Policy showed that Premadasa, representing the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (SJB) party has support from 43% of voters. Anura Kumara Dissanayake of National People’s Power (NPP) came second with 30% support, Wickremesinghe with 20% and a generic candidate from SLPP with 7%. Rajapaksa was yet to be named as the SLPP candidate then.

Analysts say Wickremesinghe may be undone by his association with the SLPP and the Rajapaksas, who gave him their support after Gotabaya fled office during the 2022 uprising. Facing severe shortages of fuel, food and medicine, soaring prices and lengthy power cuts, Sri Lankans took to the streets to demand change.

Sri Lanka’s Supreme Court ruled late last year that Gotabaya and Mahinda Rajapaksa were among 13 former leaders guilty of economic mismanagement that led to the crisis.

Since Wickremesinghe has taken the reins, Sri Lanka has sought IMF aid and the economy has again started to grow. On the negative side, the IMF reforms have also hit hard some segments of society.

Dinouk Colombage, a confidant of the incumbent and senior director of international affairs, believes voters will remember the good that Wickremesinghe has done.

“When he took over in 2022, the country’s economy had collapsed. … In the ensuing two years, the president has successfully solved these issues and stabilized the economy,” said Colombage, pointing to success in the IMF program and debt restructuring negotiations with bilateral lenders and bondholders.

Critics argue that Wickremesinghe does not have support beyond urban centres.

“The economic burdens he has imposed on large sections of the population, mostly the poor and the middle classes, and the social discontent it has produced, is likely to work against his political fortunes,” said Jayadeva Uyangoda, a political science professor at the University of Colombo, referring to austerity measures under the IMF program.

Executive Director of the National Peace Council of Sri Lanka Jehan Perera agreed.

“The problem is the unequal division of the burden of this restoration of normalcy,” Perera said. “Prices have risen threefold, but the salaries of most people have remained stagnant. This has created immense hardships to the majority of people to whom the promises of those in the opposition will give hope.”

Uyangoda believes that Premadasa and Dissanayake have better chances of succeeding because of their appeal beyond elite circles and their representation of a major political shift.

Melani Gunathilaka, an activist who took part in the 2022 protests, said that Sri Lanka needs a government that can rule with transparency and is accountable. “I want a party that prioritizes the people’s well-being over business and elite interests,” she said.

For now, both opposition parties are promising just that. Vraie Cally Balthazaar, the executive committee member of the NPP, said the party will combat corruption. “This election is a chance for people to get the leadership they trust and want,” she said.

The SJB called for voters not to be fooled by SLPP’s “propaganda.” An SJB organizer, Rehan Jayawickreme, expressed strong confidence in Premadasa, saying: “We are sure Mr. Premadasa will win. It is also important for voters not to fall prey to false propaganda.”

Jayawickreme was referring to the SLPP’s attempt to frame Gotabaya Rajapaksa as a founding father of modern Sri Lanka during the last presidential election in 2019. Yet, Sri Lankans’ reverence for the Rajapaksa family cannot be underestimated. This is why despite the Rajapaksas’ fall from grace, they still entered Namal in a race he is sure to lose, with the view that raising his profile now may help to return the family to power in the future.

Imran Furkan, CEO of Tresync, a consultancy firm focused on the Asia-Pacific, described Namal’s entry to the presidential race as an “interesting development” but believes his chances are slim due to his name and its association with the 2022 chaos. If anything, Furkan thinks that Wickremesinghe could suffer as the Rajapaksas turn their support to one of their own.

“With Namal’s candidacy, the SLPP’s efforts will focus on securing a decent performance for him. It will be interesting to see if SLPP MPs (members of parliament) currently supporting Wickremesinghe will return to support Namal Rajapaksa,” he told Nikkei Asia.

Despite Sri Lankans’ desire for change, some are still pinning their hopes on Wickremesinghe.

“We didn’t have gas or fuel and had daily power cuts due to the economic collapse,” said Sahan Rathnasekara, a taxi driver in Colombo. “But after Wickremesinghe took over, things improved. We must be thankful he turned our country around.”

 Munza Mushtaq is a contributing writer for asia.nikkei.com where this article was originally featured