Egos, alliances and survival: The next chapter in the Ranil–Sajith tug-of-war

Opinion
By Editor_1
Despite poor health, Ranil Wickremesinghe has showed no sign of stepping down, leaving UNP–SJB talks over leadership unresolved, with Sajith Premadasa seen only as a possible deputy - File

By Kassapa

The tussle between Ranil Wickremesinghe and Sajith Premadasa for the leadership of the right-of-centre niche in the political landscape has been a familiar contest in Sri Lankan politics for the past one and a half decades

For a while, there was a cold war within the United National Party (UNP). Although J.R. Jayewardene chose Ranasinghe Premadasa as his deputy and Ranasinghe Premadasa chose Ranil Wickremesinghe as his Leader of the House when he was President, Wickremesinghe did not choose Sajith Premadasa as his trusted deputy, relying instead on a different inner circle to run his party where Premadasa was always considered an outsider.

Fed up with this and with Wickremesinghe losing successive elections, the first Ranil vs. Sajith battle came to the fore in December 2011. Karu Jayasuriya challenged Wickremesinghe for the leadership, Premadasa challenged Ravi Karunanayake for the deputy leadership and Dayasiri Jayasekara challenged Daya Gamage for the national organizer post. Premadasa won that contest but Jayasuriya and Jayasekara lost.  In that sense, the first battle could be considered a tie, as Premadasa was able to consolidate his position as No.2 in the party.

The second Ranil vs. Sajith battle emerged in 2020 when, after being defeated at the 2019 presidential poll, Premadasa wanted to take control of the UNP. Wickremesinghe didn’t yield, leading to Premadasa leaving the Grand Old Party, taking most of its stalwarts with him and forming the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB). Their performance at the 2020 general election, just a few months after the SJB was formed, where the UNP was reduced to just one National List seat and the SJB secured 54 seats, meant that the second Ranil vs. Sajith Battle was clearly won by Premadasa.

The third Ranil Vs. Sajith battle was not a direct encounter and occurred during the ‘aragalaya’, the popular public uprising against Gotabaya Rajapaksa in mid-2024. Premadasa, as Leader of the Opposition, was offered the first opportunity to form a government following Mahinda Rajapaksa’s resignation as Prime Minister. He hesitated and said ‘no’ and that was enough of an opportunity for Wickremesinghe to run to Rajapaksa and take his oaths. It is said that when Premadasa heard of Wickremesinghe’s intentions he agreed to be Prime Minister but by then it was too late. The rest, as they say, is history: Wickremesinghe went on to attain the position he coveted for most of his life with hardly breaking a sweat. So, Round three was won by Wickremesinghe, even if it was by default.

Now, the stage is set for Round four. The UNP has been decimated but following his recent arrest for allegedly abusing state resources, Wickremesinghe is attempting to manipulate the wave of sympathy that it generated to his advantage. He has declared that those who joined the SJB will have the suspensions of their UNP membership revoked. This was a carrot to SJB members who were disillusioned with the SJB’s lack of success at the polls in general and Premadasa’s leadership style in particular. Many were willing to forgive and forget and return to the UNP.

As hopes of a ‘reunification’ rose high in both camps, Premadasa summoned the Working Committee and the Management Committee of the SJB. There, he made his position clear. He was agreeable to working together with the UNP, but it would be under the ‘leadership and direction’ of the SJB because that was the dominant party, and while maintaining the separate identities of the two parties. His argument was that the UNP may have a glorious past but it was the SJB that had potential in the future.  

For once in his political career, Premadasa appears to have stolen a march over Wickremesinghe. The invitation to the UNP is clear. For any alliance with the SJB, they would have to accept Premadasa as the overall leader of any future alliance and relegate Wickremesinghe to No.2. It is not a proposition that the former president or his closest associates in the UNP would take kindly to.

If Premadasa’s leadership is accepted, it will be curtains for the political careers of many Wickremesinghe loyalists – the likes of Ravi Karunanayake, Vajira Abeywardena and Sagala Ratnayake to name a few – in the same manner in which Ranasinghe Premadasa relegated Lalith Athulathmudali, Gamini Dissanayake and their loyalists in the UNP when he assumed leadership of the party in the late ‘80s. So, this inner circle of Wickremesinghe will try and resist any ‘reunification’ attempts to their utmost.   

Premadasa is acting from a position of strength. His SJB has 40 seats in Parliament, the UNP has only five, of which four are from other parties who contested under the New Democratic Front banner. So, while the SJB can gain by aligning with the UNP, it doesn’t lose much even if it doesn’t. The UNP on the other hand will become politically destitute if it doesn’t undergo a major transformation beginning with changes at the very top of the party which Wickremesinghe is not prepared to make.

This is not a development that will be forgotten after the initial news makes headlines. That is because provincial council elections are likely in 2026. If there is to be any alliance, this is a golden opportunity to test that out. It will be no easy task to work out nomination lists that would satisfy stalwarts of both parties. With almost all of the UNP’s leading personalities being booted out of Parliament, they will want to be chief ministerial candidates in the provinces and attempt to elbow out those from the SJB. Some SJB parliamentarians have already said they wish to resign to contest the provincial polls. This will surely test the patience of the SJB and its leadership.

First though, the UNP will have to accept Premadasa’s caveat of accepting the ‘leadership and direction’ of Premadasa and the SJB. Whether Wickremesinghe will swallow that bitter pill remains to be seen. So, the stage is set for round four of the Wickremesinghe vs. Premadasa battle.

The sad reality is that the egos of these two personalities may determine the future of right-of-centre politics in the country, for which there is a huge vacuum with a left-leaning government ruling the country for the first time.

-This article was originally featured on counterpoint.lk

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