UNP–SJB reunification: Flattering, Faltering, and Failing -Again

By Kassapa

Interrogated, arrested, remanded, admitted to hospital, bailed and discharged home, Ranil Wickremesinghe can be credited with one achievement: he has lived to fight another day, both literally and metaphorically.

Indeed, if one were to believe the medical reports presented in court in support of his bail application on the second day of his hearing, one feared whether he would live another day. With Wickremesinghe absent from court but watching proceedings through a video link from his hospital bed, his lawyer painted a grim picture of a frail old man whose life was hanging by a thread, whose organs were failing and whose wife’s assistance was required to keep him breathing at night. Such was the gravity of his condition, the doctors who provided the report said. Presented with this scenario, the presiding Magistrate had no choice but to grant bail under ‘exceptional’ circumstances.

Fast forward three days, and Wickremesinghe had miraculously risen from the critically ill, posing for photos with hospital staff looking relaxed and well and clutching a copy of ‘Unleashed’, the biography of former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, a political rascal if ever there was one. Those photos said a thousand words. Either we had just witnessed a modern-day medical miracle, or more likely, the doctors’ report and how lawyers portrayed it hoodwinked the court.

That was only the beginning. Back home, Wickremesinghe wanted to ensure that his sojourn in remand prison wasn’t wasted. He wanted to take maximum political advantage out of the drama. The fact that leaders of several opposition parties- notably, Sajith Premadasa, Mahinda Rajapaksa and Maithripala Sirisena- supported him during his detention was to be used to project the image of an ‘unified’ opposition.

The convention of the United National Party (UNP), originally scheduled for September 6, offered the perfect opportunity. Initially listed to be a ‘home’ event at the party’s Sirikotha headquarters in Kotte, the venue was to be shifted to a ‘neutral’ venue. Premadasa, Rajapaksa, Sirisena and assorted others were to be invited. The plan was to depict Wickremesinghe as the great unifier of the divided opposition forces.

That wasn’t all. In informal discussions with the Samagi Jana Balavegaya (SJB), it was indicated that the UNP memberships of SJB members, suspended when they formed the SJB, would be restored. SJB General Secretary Ranjith Madduma Bandara rose to the bait, gushing that ‘we are like a big family, we may have disputes, some may even leave the family from time to time, but they can always return’. These types of reconciliatory statements were emanating from both the UNP and the SJB. Premadasa, who couldn’t bear the sight of Wickremesinghe and previously avoided meeting him, had visited him daily in the hospital.

So, reunification was in the air. Some SJB members, disgruntled with Premadasa’s lacklustre leadership, were overjoyed at the prospect of returning to the Grand Old Party. Others, not so. This included Premadasa, of course.

The core issue at stake was who would lead a unified UNP-SJB alliance? Wickremesinghe’s report on his health offered him the perfect chance to cite health reasons and make a graceful exit. Yet, in all the informal discussions, there was no mention of that. Premadasa, at best, could be made deputy leader of the UNP and become Wickremesinghe’s successor eventually, but there was not even a hint that the man at the helm of the UNP for thirty-plus years was willing to step down.

Premadasa loyalists in the SJB wanted none of that. There is a school of thought in the SJB that even if Wickremesinghe was willing to take on a non-executive, nominal leadership role and hand over the reins to Premadasa, his inner circle, now comprising Sagala Ratnayake and Vajira Abeywardena, wanted Wickremesinghe at the top, making decisions because they knew that Premadasa assuming leadership of the UNP would spell the end of their political careers. Another who could have been in this group, Ravi Karunanayake, once Premadasa’s bitter rival, appeared to be cosying up to Premadasa lately.

That there was trouble in the proposed UNP-SJB alliance was becoming evident. Vocal SJB stalwart Nalin Bandara Jayamaha said ‘the UNP could join the SJB as an ally’, noting that the latter was the larger party. The message, obviously delivered with Premadasa’s approval, was that if an alliance was to emerge, it would be on terms dictated by the SJB, not the UNP.

Premadasa’s dilemma is understandable. On the one hand, with Wickremesinghe detained, he could not appear to have abandoned his former leader when all others in the opposition were rallying around him, even though that was not because they loved Wickremesinghe; it was only because it gave them a chance to bash the government. On the other hand, there is a faction within the SJB which is chomping at the bit to rejoin the UNP. Premadasa had to appease them and retain their support.   

What neither the UNP nor the SJB appear to realize, though, is that the drama surrounding Wickremesinghe’s arrest and detention is not one that will rejuvenate the opposition because it does not have overwhelming public sympathy. On the contrary, it aligns with the narrative of the National People’s Party (NPP), which pledged to eliminate corruption and punish those responsible. Public sentiment is overwhelmingly in favour of this still, and although the government may have many faults, it is still streets ahead of either the UNP or the SJB in popularity.

The UNP trying to link with the SJB is understandable because the party is moribund anyway. The SJB, if they do join the UNP, especially after Wickremesinghe’s arrest, is opening itself to the criticism that they are condoning alleged corrupt acts and are trying to stall those investigations. It is an accusation that a party in the opposition can ill-afford to have.

For all these reasons, the SJB leadership was having second thoughts. This is why the UNP convention was postponed, officially because of Wickremesinghe’s poor health but practically because the UNP wanted to buy time to iron out these differences.

This attempt to reunite the UNP and the SJB will also be like previous ones: it will flatter, falter and fail. Unless, of course, Ranil Wickremesinghe decides to resign from the UNP leadership. And that is not a headline we expect to see any time soon.      

-This article was originally featured on counterpoint.lk