By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham

Former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s opus, ‘The Conspiracy to Oust Me from the Presidency’, published in English and Sinhala, was launched without much fanfare last week. Intimation of the launch was a media release issued ahead of copies of the 179-page tome being sent directly to several big-name booksellers across the country.

Close on the heels of the release of ‘The Conspiracy…’ came an announcement from the chairman of the United National Party (UNP), Vajira Abeywardena MP, that he would shortly be launching his book, the inside story of how incumbent President Ranil Wickremesinghe became the Head of the State with a solitary seat in Parliament after the 2022 ‘aragalaya’ uprising. He released a compilation of newspaper cartoons about the president last week.

Local and foreign media has given much publicity to Gotabaya’s book, which he claimed is a first-hand account of an internationally sponsored regime change operation that would be of much interest to both Sri Lankans and foreign nationals alike.

The claim is contrary to reality, as the book does not appear to have garnered the expected response from Sri Lankans, with most of the revelations being a rehash of matters already known to the public. Perhaps the book would have attracted more attention if Gotabaya, who fled the country amidst an unprecedented people’s uprising and resigned from the presidency while in Singapore, had given it a different title.

International and local conspiracies are a ‘go-to’ card regularly used by the Rajapaksas to explain their many foibles.

The Rajapaksas have stuck to their claim that the people’s uprising, which drove them out of power two years ago, was a conspiracy by domestic and foreign forces.  They wilfully ignore the reality that the masses took to the streets and revolted against them because of their policies, which led the country to bankruptcy for the first time in its modern history.

National Freedom Front (NFF) leader Wimal Weerawansa, a staunch ally turned vociferous adversary of the Rajapaksas after being stripped of his ministerial portfolio in early 2022,  revealed a so-called ‘ ‘international conspiracy’ in his book titled ‘Nine’: The Hidden Story ‘, which reports claim contains more details about a conspiracy than Gotabaya’s opus.

Nevertheless, with the country awaiting national elections, many interpret the release of Gotabaya’s ‘Conspiracy’ as a ‘clearing of the slate to re-enter politics’. Many also say it is not a coincidence that ‘Conspiracy’ came out in step with the return of Basil Rajapaksa from the USA to ‘steer the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) towards the elections’.

In ‘Conspiracy’ Gotabaya claims he was compelled to step down as president because of a regime change operation orchestrated by international powers.  He says the accounts are based on first-hand experience and knowledge, but does not name any country, nor does he provide any credible evidence to back his claims. Instead, he broadly identifies the geopolitical rivalry between China and other countries and the Chinese-funded infrastructure projects post-2006 that brought an element of geopolitical contest to the Sri Lankan political landscape as reasons.

Claiming it would be extremely naïve for anyone to believe there was no foreign hand in his ouster, he says foreign intervention in Sri Lanka began the day ‘he won’ the war against the Tamil Tigers.

This fact was highlighted in a release announcing the launch of the book, which states:

“From the time I was elected as President in November 2019, local and foreign forces started working to remove me from power. Immediately after I took office, the COVID-19 pandemic began spreading in Sri Lanka and across the world. I had to spend my two and a half years in office trying to control the pandemic.

“After the pandemic was brought under control by an effective vaccination campaign in March 2022 and when the economy was beginning to recover, the conspiratorial forces started their campaign to remove me from the presidency. Today foreign intervention and manipulation of internal politics has become a fact of life in Sri Lanka in a manner never experienced in the first sixty years of independence of this country.

“Attempts to remove me from office have brought a new trend in the politics of Sri Lanka, which had witnessed a peaceful transition of power through democratic elections since independence.”

Gotabaya’s remarks in the book reveal a belated acceptance that he was a political neophyte and a confession of sorts about his inability to properly exercise his presidential powers due to him not being the leader of the ruling party. It wouldn’t have taken him long to understand why previous executive presidents including his brother Mahinda Rajapaksa, ensured they led their parties. The former president’s naivety was evidenced in his assumption that with his brothers controlling the ruling party, he would not face any problems on the political front. Little did he understand that though blood is thicker than water in the general sense, political power is way thicker than blood.

In any case, what prompted me to comment on Gotabaya’s ‘Conspiracy’ is his inference to ‘minority instigation’ in key sections regarding the aragalaya.

The book, it appears has been written to attribute ethnicity-based political reasoning for the popular revolt against his rule. Case in point is his claim that all aragalaya-related protests, especially those held in Colombo, may have been motivated by the fear that if he continued in power, the Sinhala Buddhist base would have been strengthened to the detriment of minority communities. The aragalaya, which he says had the support of foreign powers from the very outset, was hostile towards the Sinhalese, especially the Sinhala Buddhists, and their interests.

He also says if anyone was to scrutinize those who gathered at the Galle Face Green, it would be evidenced that all the protesters belonged to segments of the population that were against him.

This was further emphasized in the following paragraphs:

“The perception that I was against the Tamils and Muslims was reinforced. Although I maintained excellent relations with the Catholic Church, they also later turned against me. Those who participated in the aragalaya had different goals and priorities.

“If anyone had an impression that the purpose of the aragalaya movement was to mitigate the hardships faced by the people as a result of the economic crisis, it is simply delusional. The agenda of the Diaspora Tamils demanding a united Sri Lanka instead of a unitary state was clearly visible in the aragalaya. They have been demanding a political solution to the ethnic conflict based on a federal set-up.”

He has also gone to the extent of defining his electoral victory as a consequence of a contest between the Sinhala and Buddhist interests on the one hand and the interest of all non-Sinhala and non-Buddhist elements on the other.

Although the Supreme Court ruled in November 2023 that the three Rajapaksa brothers and some senior officials who held key positions in their government, including the two former governors of the Central Bank, were responsible for the collapse of the economy, Gotabaya has adamantly refused to accept any responsibility, for himself or his government, and has instead portrayed himself as an innocent victim of a dangerous conspiracy.

There is no doubt his narrative is a clear demonstration of the Rajapaksas’ determination to regain the support of the Sinhala people by once again vilifying the minority communities as spearheading the conspiracy orchestrated by foreign powers and thereby mobilizing the majority community against a common enemy.

There is no gainsaying the objectives of the aragalaya were genuine. In the initial stages of the struggle, there were manifestations of a political revolution which was carried out peacefully and turned the attention of the whole world towards Sri Lanka.

But when the movement turned into a mass struggle, various political forces infiltrated, bringing with them an element of violence that later saw the protesters storming strategic state buildings including President’s House, Temple Trees and the Prime Minister’s Office, providing the perforce scenario for the government of the new President Ranil Wickremesinghe to justify repression.

The sorry ending of the aragalaya is a classic example of the fate that would befall any popular uprising without clear objectives and proper leadership guided by progressive political principles.

The Rajapaksas never dreamt that the Sinhalese people would rise up against them so quickly. They were labouring under the mistaken belief the Sinhalese community would forever be slavishly loyal to them and that Sri Lanka’s political power would be their monopoly. The Rajapaksas expected the Sinhalese to support them without a murmur, accepting their many shenanigans, as probably a Rajapaksa quirk.

Being too long in the political wilderness doesn’t suit the Rajapaksas. They either need to return to power or facilitate someone who will not hold them accountable for past misrule to gain power. There is no doubt their moves in the coming days will be based on this objective. They have no other way to rebuild their party and regain the support of the Sinhala people other than indulging in hoopla about an imaginary international conspiracy and anti-minority politics.

In today’s geopolitical context, powerful countries intervening in the internal affairs of other countries and manipulating the political forces is nothing new. However, it should be understood that the actions of the rulers create a conducive situation for such interventions.

Gotabaya’s attempt to paint the popular uprising as a revolt against the interests of Sinhalese Buddhists is an insult to the intelligence of that community. A lesson learnt from the aragalaya and beyond is that majoritarian mobilization cannot be used to cover up corruption and misrule. Falling into the same trap once again will spell disaster for Sri Lanka.

– Veeragathy Thanabalasingham is a senior journalist and Consultant Editor, Express Newspapers Ltd