By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham

Seemingly subscribing to the theory ‘If I don’t do it, nobody else can’, former president Mahinda Rajapaksa appears to be on a determined course to resuscitate the floundering Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP), convinced if the party is not resurrected as a strong political entity in his time, other Rajapaksas may not be able to do so in the future.

There is an element of credence to this outlook, albeit bordering on the egotistical. For, although the Ruhunu Rajapaksas had been involved in politics and held various positions since the early part of the 1900s, it was only after Mahinda became the executive president in 2005 that they grew into a powerful political family wielding immense influence and power. Mahinda is, unarguably, the political face of the family.

Forced to step down from power at the height of the ‘aragalaya’, the people’s uprising, last year, the Rajapaksas however began making comeback plans within a few months. And in Ranil Wickremesinghe, they found an enabling ally, who not only facilitated their return but also ensured their security and gave them the space to regroup via the indefinite postponement of local government elections.  Today, ostensibly on a firmer footing, they are convinced and seek to convince their supporters, and perhaps the unwitting masses that the SLPP can win any future elections. And in recent times such efforts, especially from Mahinda, have intensified.

The former president is well aware of the augury of the landmark November 14 Supreme Court determination holding the three Rajapaksa brothers directly responsible for the 2023 economic crisis, and its implications for his family’s political future. However, being the consummate politician that he is, Mahinda has sidestepped the issue of accountability, dismissed the court determination and claimed all the economic decisions during his regime were taken with the approval of Parliament.

He backed this claim two weeks later (on November 28) with a report giving numerous statistics, which he said were indicative of the economy showing healthy growth during his tenure from 2005 to 2014, and laid the blame squarely on the ‘Yahapalanaya’ government,  claiming it was their actions that led to the economic crisis. Projecting himself as ‘the saviour’ of Sri Lanka, he appealed to the masses to never again commit the mistakes of the 2015 elections. The underlying message in all this being, bring back his party back to office.

Interestingly, neither the leaders nor the ministers of the ‘ Yahapalanaya government have responded, strongly or otherwise, to Mahinda’s allegations.

It is also noteworthy that exactly one month after the Supreme Court ruling the SLPP held its second national convention in Colombo, where Mahinda was re-elected as the party leader. While former president Gotabaya Rajapaksa was conspicuous in his absence, speculations abound about the political implications of the national organizer post, previously held by former finance minister Basil Rajapaksa, being left vacant.

The Rajapaksa hold on the party was clearly evident in the convention, in that only Mahinda and Basil addressed the gathering, while SLPP General Secretary Sagara Kariyawasam was relegated to delivering the welcome address.

And Mahinda, in his address notifying that the SLPP was prepared to come back to power and face any election, said the party will start a new journey in keeping with the needs of the country, and invited people of all communities to join them in creating a new nation. “With all our strength we will win any election,” he said, claiming many political parties were awaiting an invitation to join the SLPP’s new journey

Pledging to create a political culture instead of false politics, he said, “We will strive until our efforts and work are written in history. We are ready to start our journey from where we failed to take Sri Lanka to the front of the world as a proud country.”

In Mahinda’s promise of a new beginning, was also reminders of old glory, when he once again claimed credit for the war victory saying that during the three decades of war, no other leader dared to confront the LTTE leader, Velupillai Prabhakaran head-on. The reminders of old glory were no doubt craftily intentioned, for the Rajapaksas will definitely need Prabhakaran and past glory to regain influence among the Sinhalese people.  In tandem, it is also likely communal politics will once again play a key role in their quest for recovery.

In the Rajapaksa revival drive, a factor that is appearing increasingly ironic, if not hypocritical, is their very overt attempts to distance themselves from the Ranil Wickremesinghe administration, after having used their parliamentary majority to install him as president, and then voting in favour of all his legislative endeavours.

Although President Wickremesinghe is the leader of the United National Party, all but a couple of ministers in his government are members of the SLPP. Many were ministers in the government of the two Rajapaksa brothers.

So, it is a given that not many of the bills and resolutions brought by the Wickremesinghe government would have been passed without the support of the SLPP, nor would the two budgets presented by Wickremesinghe in his capacity as the finance minister. And in the final touch of disingenuousness, the Rajapaksas have been loud in their praise of Wickremesinghe, claiming he has worked efficiently to rescue the country from crisis and has restored law and order.

Now Mahinda is claiming in the same loud voice the current government is not run by the SLPP, while at the same time trying to justify his support to the Wickremesinghe administration, saying, “Though SLPP is part of the government, the head of the government is the leader of another party that follows a different policy. It is the duty of SLPP to ensure that a stable government is in office until the next national elections.”

Sanctimoniously, he has also taken a stance against the tax hikes and expressed concerns about their impact on the cost of living, despite voting in favour of the reforms that increased the value-added tax (VAT) from 15 to 18%  and included a range of essential goods that were earlier exempted.

It is also worth noting that while Mahinda supported the VAT bill, Namal Rajapaksa, the eldest son and political heir to the Rajapaksa legacy, stayed away during the vote on the bill, claiming he could not support a bill which would bring untold hardship to the people. While some might view Namal’s action and Mahinda’s current concerns as admirable, the reality is the father-son act is a charade that insults the intelligence of the people of Sri Lanka. For, while the SLPP leader and its members of Parliament supported the bill, Namal did not have the courage to remain in the House and vote against it, and his concern about how the hike would impact the people did not extend to asking SLPP MPs to not support the bill.

The tax policy will no doubt become a key political issue in 2024, with Mahinda making it a major focus of the SLPP campaign in the national elections.

His response to the Supreme Court’s determination and his comments to the media makes it clear he expects the masses to accept without question his claims that the ‘Yahapalanaya’ policies and actions are solely responsible for the economic crisis Sri Lanka is facing.  This then segues into his conviction that the SLPP would regain power in the next election, based on the belief that by repeating his claims and convictions he can sway the people to think his way.

It appears the Rajapaksas have not learned any lessons from the blow dealt to their image and dreams via the aragalaya. They dream of coming back to power without really understanding the public sentiment about the Rajapaksas – father, son, et al.

Confident they can regain the support of the masses, the Rajapaksas are also convinced their Podujana Peramuna party will not suffer the same fate as the United National Party in the last parliamentary election.  Having said that, it is unlikely that a Rajapaksa will contest the next presidential election. They know that a possible defeat in that election will be detrimental to rebuilding the party in the future. The Rajapaksa’s strategy in the next elections would be to ensure a government that does not hold them accountable for past mistakes.

In this context, even if the Rajapaksas were to field some ‘wanna-bes’ as their potential presidential candidates, they have no ‘safer choice’ than Wickremesinghe.

– Veeragathy Thanabalasingham is a senior journalist and Consultant Editor, Express Newspapers Ltd