By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham 

Sri Lanka has experienced eight presidential elections so far.  However, never before have we witnessed the kind of confusion among the main political parties as in the run-up to the upcoming polls.

Though rumours abound, President Ranil Wickremesinghe is yet to confirm his candidacy for an election that (if held) is only six months away. And if he does enter the fray, he will have to look outside his United National Party (UNP) to garner any sort of victory

Three decades of Wickremesinghe’s leadership has denuded the UNP of its electoral significance and brought it to its weakest point in history. But Wickremesinghe believes his popularity among the people is rising due to the ‘perceived economic stability’ he has achieved as a result of the economic restructuring program being carried out by his government in line with the recommendations of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Pragmatic about his chances as a UNP candidate however, Wickremesinghe has made overtures to forge a grand alliance to support his bid for the presidency, relying entirely on a section of the Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna (SLPP) parliamentarians who defected from the Rajapaksa enclave after the popular uprising, to build up the alliance. But he is yet to make any significant progress.

Perhaps adhering to the ‘don’t keep all the eggs in one basket’ adage, he is also simultaneously having talks with the Rajapaksas and is said to have met with SLPP leaders Mahinda and Basil Rajapaksa last week. However, reports claim neither party were able to reach a decision on forming an alliance, the underlying reason being the Rajapaksa brothers’ objection to Wickremesinghe approaching the ministers and MPs of SLPP bypassing the leadership.

The Rajapaksas, unwilling and unprepared to accept the realities about the extent to which their support base has eroded, are convinced their party still has the capacity to decide the future political course of Sri Lanka. They say whoever gets their support will become the next president, their dictum being either they stay in power or ensure someone who does not hold them accountable for their mistakes comes to power,

A reality check is needed here. For, although it is widely believed that Wickremesinghe will contest the presidential election with the support of the Rajapaksas, there is no guarantee their support will be of great benefit to him. In such a context, both parties have no real choice but to support each other.

On the other hand, as far as Wickramasinghe is concerned, he also has the option of not contesting if he finds there is no conducive situation for his victory.

Meanwhile, the Janata Vimukti Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP), currently at the forefront of popular support in the South, has been carrying out its campaign with great enthusiasm and conviction. Important foreign powers have also been paying attention to its leader, Anura Kumara Dissanayake, who is seen as a front-runner for the presidency.  NPP leaders are talking about the plans of their future government, convinced they have a better chance of forming the next government.

As a counterfoil to the NPP conviction, there is confusion within the Samagi Jana Balawegaya (United People’s Power – SJB)  led by opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, who appears unable to hold on to many of his party MPs. Case in point is the party chairman Sarath Fonseka who has been openly critical of Premadasa in the recent past.

The SJB leader also appears to be aping the NPP in some of its political strategies, specifically in inducting ex-army and police officers into the party and mobilizing women’s support across the country.

Though incumbent Wickremesinghe has not yet announced his candidacy, it is widely expected the presidential election will be a three-way contest between him, and the leaders of the NPP and the SJB. Candidates from many other parties, and as independents, are also likely to contest the election, which in 2019 had as many as 35 candidates on the list.

Former President Maithripala Sirisena, the leader of the Sri Lanka Freedom Party (SLFP), earlier announced he would also contest the election but hasn’t been talking about it in recent weeks.

Others likely to be in the fray included the president of the United Republic Front (URF), Champika Ranawaka, who has been meeting leaders of various parties including Wickremesinghe with his policy plan. He is on record saying that he is ready to consider contesting as a common candidate if he is approached. But it is unlikely that anyone will be fielded as a common candidate of the opposition this time, and the coming months will see moves to form various alliances to contest the national elections.

On a broader electoral front, it has been reported that many SLPP MPs want parliamentary elections to be held before the presidential election.  This sentiment was echoed by Basil Rajapaksa who told a television interview last week that people do not vote rationally when the parliamentary election is held after the presidential election and if the parliamentary election is held first, there is a better chance for a balanced Parliament.

His argument about people not being able to vote rationally if a presidential election precedes a parliamentary election sounds irrational and even nonsensical. Given that almost all the recent opinion polls have clearly shown no party can get an absolute majority in the next parliamentary elections, one is also at a loss to understand what makes Basil believe that a strong government can be formed if the parliamentary elections are held before the presidential one.

The president currently has the power to dissolve Parliament at any time. But it is not clear whether he would opt to do so at this moment, although a motion requesting the president to dissolve Parliament can be passed in Parliament with a two-thirds majority. With the ruling party lacking a two-thirds majority in Parliament, it is also certain the opposition will not support such a motion, as all opposition parties are firm in their stance that the presidential election should be held first.

Meanwhile, the idea of fielding a Tamil common candidate in the presidential election is being floated in the North, with the leaders of the Democratic Tamil National Alliance (DTNA) comprising five Tamil parties agreeing in principle on the need for a Tamil common candidate. Politicians and observers have already commented on its pros and cons.

The argument put forward to justify the idea of a Tamil common candidate is that the presidential election should be used as a referendum in the North and East to tell the South and the world about the current stance of the Tamil people regarding the solution to their problems, which remains unresolved even 15 years after the war ended.

A civil society organization called ‘Makkal Manu’ (People’s Petition), which has taken the initiative of bringing the issue of a common Tamil candidate to the Tamil people, held a public seminar at Thanthai Chelva  Art Gallery in Jaffna on the topic ‘How to face the presidential election?’. Addressing the seminar were three political analysts and leaders of several Tamil parties.

Given that the Tamil voters in North and East have almost always used their ballot in presidential polls as a tool against the Southern candidates they despised, the essence of the analysis at the seminar was that the Tamil people should abandon past voting patterns and treat the upcoming presidential election as a referendum to express their present predicament to the world.

It was argued that the person who can be nominated as a common candidate should have no political ambition of his or her own and at the same time should be an eminent figure in society who enjoys the respect of the Tamil people of both provinces. That is, he will only be a symbol that will be used to tell the world the political aspirations of the Tamil people today.  Intentions notwithstanding finding such a paragon in the Tamil community would be easier said than done in the present context.

Whether the Tamil people will be able to decide for themselves how to advance the next phase of their struggle for political rights or what kind of political solution to the ethnic problem should be found in the new internal and international political climate, is moot.  But what is required is a visionary political leadership with clarity of thought, and a willingness to use past experiences to guide them. Sadly, such a leadership is absent among the Tamil people today.

With the Tamil polity severely fragmented into various parties and groups and their leaders having different agendas, it should be understood that today’s Northern and Eastern Tamil communities do not possess the characteristics of being a society that has made great sacrifices in the three-decade liberation struggle.

Before thinking about a Tamil common candidate, the Tamil parties should come to a unified stance on the ways to find solutions to the immediate problems faced by the people and on short and long-term political solutions to the national problem.

Some Tamil politicians with extremist views have been demanding for a while that a referendum be held to gauge the present mood of the Tamil people regarding the national problem without a proper understanding of the exercise. Some have said the referendum should also include the Diaspora Tamil community as well.

However, the idea that appears to have gained traction is that the Tamil voters should think of the presidential election as a referendum in the North and East.

The leaders of the Tamil United Liberation Front (TULF) who put forward the demand for a separate state, used the July 1977 parliamentary elections to claim a mandate of the Tamil people and captured 18 seats in the North and East. Appapillai Amirthalingam became the Leader of the Opposition in Parliament and made history as the first-ever Opposition Leader from the Tamil community. History tells us what Tamil leaders could achieve with such a “mandate”.

In the absence of a clear unified stance by the Tamil parties to guide the Tamil people prudently, the attempt to field a Tamil common candidate would not only become a political farce and render the votes of the Tamil people meaningless but also risk undermining the legitimate political aspirations of the Tamil people.

– Veeragathy Thanabalasingham is a senior journalist and Consultant Editor, Express Newspapers Ltd