Japan’s new prime minister has an advantage in winning over Trump

Analysis
By Editor_1
President Trump with Shinzo Abe, then the Japanese prime minister, at a sumo tournament in Tokyo on May 26, 2019. As Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi seeks reassurance from President Trump on trade and security, she will likely play up her ties to a mutual friend: Shinzo Abe -Erin Schaff/The New York Times/File

By Javier C. Hernández

TOKYO — Sanae Takaichi, who last week became the first woman to lead Japan as prime minister, has never met President Donald Trump. She does not play golf, Trump’s favoured sport, nor is she known to share his love of hamburgers.

But when Takaichi holds talks with Trump in Tokyo on Tuesday (28), she will have another card to play as she tries to win reassurance from him on trade and security. She is expected to emphasize her connection to Shinzo Abe, the Japanese prime minister assassinated in 2022, who was Takaichi’s political mentor and who forged a closer bond with Trump than perhaps any other world leader.

“She will be looking to cloak herself in the mantle of Abe to persuade Trump that she is his woman in Asia and a steadfast partner that he can count on,” said Mira Rapp-Hooper, a partner at the Asia Group, a strategic advisory firm.

Takaichi will likely try to persuade Trump, who arrived in Tokyo on Monday (27), to reinvest in the decades-long security alliance with Japan and to redouble efforts to counter China’s rising influence in the region. She might seek to strengthen Japan’s oversight of a $550 billion fund that Japan has agreed to invest in the United States.

Trump will probably seek to preserve his power in deciding how that money is spent. He is also likely to push Takaichi to accelerate defence spending, even though Japan has already announced plans to more than double its military budget.

Takaichi, a dyed-in-the-wool conservative, is seen by some officials and analysts as Japan’s best shot at building chemistry with Trump and warding off his punishing instincts.

Takaichi, whom Abe endorsed during her unsuccessful leadership bid in 2021, has a “golden chance” to reset the relationship with the United States, said Shinsuke J. Sugiyama, who served as Japan’s ambassador to Washington during Trump’s first term.

“She has studied how Prime Minister Abe handled President Trump,” Sugiyama said. “She learned a lot from him. And if she and President Trump can start talking about how great Shinzo Abe was, I think they won’t be able to disagree on anything.”

When Trump visited Japan, Abe piled on the pomp and circumstance, taking him to a sumo wrestling tournament and granting him the honour of being the first international leader to meet the newly enthroned emperor.

Trump’s first stop is the Imperial Palace in Tokyo, where he is set to meet again with the emperor, Naruhito. On Tuesday, he will have lunch with Takaichi at Akasaka Palace, a state guest house. He is also to preside over a rally of US troops at a naval base near Tokyo. (Japan hosts more than 50,000 US troops.)

Like Abe, Takaichi has spoken of the need to unfetter Japan’s military after decades of postwar pacifism. She appears eager to demonstrate her commitment to Trump, who has pressed allies of the United States to increase their military spending: On Friday, she announced that Japan would spend about 2% of gross domestic product on defence by next spring, two years ahead of schedule.

Trump’s retreat from traditional allies in Europe and Asia has rattled Japanese officials, especially as the country sees rising security threats from China, North Korea and Russia.

When she meets Trump, Takaichi is expected to raise concerns about China’s ongoing militarization of the South China Sea. She has been a vocal defender of Taiwan, which China considers part of its territory. In the spring, she visited the island, meeting its president, Lai Ching-te, and calling for stronger security ties.

In a sign of the challenges facing China and Japan, Xi Jinping, the Chinese leader, did not congratulate Takaichi in public after her election as prime minister.

Jeffrey W. Hornung, an expert on Japan at the Rand research group in Washington, said Takaichi would likely seek confirmation that Trump remains committed to Taiwan’s security.

“Japanese officials want to know what the American strategy in the Indo-Pacific is,” Hornung said.

The trade agreement is expected to be a priority during Trump’s visit. In July, Japan received a lower-than-threatened 15% across-the-board tariff on its exports in exchange for its commitment to inject $550 billion into the US economy. The two sides are working out how Japan will deploy that money in investment, loans and loan guarantees.

Beyond trade, Takaichi is looking to establish an enduring bond with Trump in the style of Abe, analysts said. Some experts worry that Japan could be left vulnerable if Trump resolves a trade dispute with Xi; the two are set to meet later this week in South Korea.

“Her biggest trepidation might be the possibility that a Trump-Xi meeting goes too well,” said Rapp-Hooper, a former Biden administration official. “Then Japan is faced with a conundrum of how it will manage China in a world in which U.S.-China relations appear to be warming in an unprecedented way.”

-New York Times

Editor_1
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