By Veeragathy Thanabalasingham 

In what is being described as a delicate diplomatic balancing act, President Anura Kumara Dissanayake embarks on a state visit to China this week, just a month after his inaugural official foreign visit to India.

Accompanied by Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath and Transport Minister Bimal Ratnayake, President Dissanayake is scheduled to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang on Wednesday (15). The visit is expected to culminate in the signing of approximately ten Memorandums of Understanding (MoUs) in Beijing, spanning various sectors, underlining the strategic importance of Sri Lanka’s ties with China.

Dissanayake’s visit to India in mid-December, where he engaged in discussions with the country’s leaders in New Delhi, was in keeping with an established diplomatic tradition for Sri Lankan Presidents upon assuming office. But it is worth noting that the state visit to China was announced well ahead of the visit to India, though technically this week’s visit becomes Dissanayake’s second major international bilateral engagement since ascending to the high office of power.

In this context, two notable events that took place in Colombo last week merit attention.

First is the National People’s Power (NPP) government’s reaffirmation of its commitment to the ‘One China Policy’ and declaration that it recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the legitimate government of China and considers Taiwan as a province of China. This was announced by Cabinet Spokesperson Nalinda Jayatissa, who at the weekly media briefing last Tuesday (7), said Cabinet had approved a proposal submitted by Foreign Minister Vijitha Herath in this regard.

One wonders about the reason for such a declaration, for as far as history is concerned, no past government has announced such a re-affirmation of the ‘One China Policy’ before its leader’s state visit to the country.

Sri Lanka was among the first countries to recognize the People’s Republic of China, established by the Community Party after its successful October 1949 revolution led by Chairman Mao Zedong. To be precise, the Sri Lankan (then Ceylon) government recognized China on January 6, 1950.  And extending the recognition further, the United National Party (UNP) government of Prime Minister Dudley Senanayake, went on to sign the Rubber-Rice Pact with China in April 1952. Notably, Sri Lanka was the first South Asian country to recognize Communist China.

It is also noteworthy that the tenure of Prime Minister S.W.R.D. Bandaranaike, Chinese Premier Chou En-Lai paid a historic five-day visit to Sri Lanka in January 1957, leading to the establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries on February 7 of that year.

This is indicative that irrespective of the political party in power, Sri Lankan governments have consistently maintained cordial and close relations with China. Sri Lankans view China as a long-standing ally, both in bilateral cooperation and international forums, including the United Nations.

There is no record of Chinese leaders doubting Sri Lanka’s commitment to the ‘One China Policy’, nor of any previous Sri Lankan leader needing to reaffirm it before visiting China. And given the fact that the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP), the flagship party of the NPP, has historically maintained strong ties with the Chinese Communist Party, questions arise as to why the NPP government felt compelled to reaffirm the ‘One China Policy’ before President Dissanayake’s visit.

Cabinet Spokesperson Jayatissa denied any connection between the reaffirmation of the One China Policy and the President’s visit to China. Responding to questions from reporters, he said when a new government comes to power, it must approve the decisions taken by the previous Cabinet and that the proposal by Minister Herath was in keeping with protocol. He went on to add that even if the President was not visiting China, the government would have reaffirmed its adherence to the ‘One China Policy’. To say the least, his response was not convincing.

Adding to this context, Prime Minister Harini Amarasooriya, at a recent function in Colombo that was also attended by the Chinese Ambassador to Sri Lanka, mistakenly referred to ‘People’s Republic of China’ as the ‘Republic of China’ while thanking the country for its assistance. The Republic of China refers to Taiwan.

The Chinese Ambassador is said to have been uncomfortable with the Prime Minister’s gaffe, though the latter blamed the media, without realizing the need to correct the mistake. It is believed, the incident would have led the Chinese side to insist on a clear position on the ‘One China Policy’ ahead of the President’s visit.

Meanwhile, Indian High Commissioner Santosh Jha’s meeting with journalists in Colombo last Tuesday drew significant attention, with some observers interpreting it as India’s subtle reminder of its all-time strong ties with Sri Lanka, ahead of the President’s visit to China.

This interpretation was validated by Jha’s comment about India “being extremely positive and buoyant” about its partnership with Sri Lanka and crediting President Dissanayake’s recent visit to New Delhi and the ensuing deliberations with adding “renewed vigour” to bilateral ties.

When questioned about India’s stance on Chinese research vessels entering Sri Lankan waters following the expiration of a one-year moratorium imposed by the previous government, the High Commissioner expressed confidence in Sri Lanka’s commitment to ensuring its territory is not used to harm India’s security or regional stability, as mentioned in the NPP’s election manifesto and reiterated by President Dissanayake during his discussions with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“We take Sri Lanka at its word and trust it to uphold its commitments. We are fully confident that Sri Lanka will take the appropriate actions to ensure this,” he said.

India’s confidence in the Sri Lankan President’s commitment was well articulated by the High Commissioner, though the assurance given by Dissanayake is nothing out of the ordinary. Previous presidents too have given similar assurances, although India has not always been happy with their actions.

China, on the other hand, has consistently criticized the one-year moratorium on the entry of foreign research vessels to Sri Lankan waters imposed by the government of former president Ranil Wickremesinghe,  alleging it was imposed under external pressure—an implicit reference to India. It has also maintained there should be no outside interference affecting bilateral relations between Sri Lanka and China. And in moves that reinforced that conviction, Vice Chairwoman of the National Committee of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference (CPPCC), Qin Boyong, met with President Dissanayake barely 24 hours after his return from New Delhi, ostensibly to discuss investment opportunities, development cooperation and resumption of maritime research activities.

India believes the Chinese research vessels to be spy ships that could pose a threat to its security and is not prepared to accept Sri Lanka’s actions that do not fully align with its strategic preference on this issue.

However, the research vessel issue will remain a sticking point for President Dissanayake, who is keen to maintain a balance in relations with the two Asian giants.

And though India could not openly object to the recent visit of a Chinese naval medical vessel to Colombo. But with China announcing plans to resume maritime explorations, the Sri Lankan government needs to formulate a clear procedure to be followed regarding such vessels without antagonising either country.

Maintaining a non-hostile approach to China and India, which are competing for their economic and strategic interests in Sri Lanka, will undoubtedly be a long-term challenge for the Sri Lankan government.

Both countries have been making competing arguments to justify their interests in Sri Lanka.

In India’s case, New Delhi perceives Sri Lanka as a part of its sphere of influence and within its defence parameters. It also sees Sri Lanka as a natural ally with deep historical, cultural and religious links, and feels justified in demanding a special relationship, which in geopolitical terms means Sri Lanka should keep at bay India’s rivals or any force inimical to it. Further, India has also been assiduously trying to bring Sri Lanka under its political, economic and security umbrella through its ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy and maritime agreements, and has acted as the ‘first responder’ when the country faced natural disasters, armed insurgencies or economic crises.

This was demonstrated most recently during the economic crisis when India provided an emergency loan of US$ 4 billion at a time when no other country, including China, was willing to lend a helping hand.

Despite criticism from some quarters that the Indian assistance was provided to safeguard its interests in Sri Lanka, an overwhelming majority of Sri Lankans remain grateful to the giant neighbour.  But that gratitude does not extend to Indian investment, which is not welcomed with the same fervour as that of China. This has been a constant problem for India.

This dichotomy is reflected in the actions of Sri Lankan leaders, who agree to India’s project proposals while in New Delhi but are compelled to change their positions upon returning to Colombo, in the face of domestic opposition.

As the JVP is a political party that follows Marxist principles, there is a widespread perception that the current government has close ties with ‘communist’ China and as such it will give more importance to China’s interests in Sri Lanka. But the reality today is that China is not a communist country. Despite being ruled by the Communist Party, it is the second-largest capitalist economy after the United States. At the same time, one should also note that the NPP government shows little inclination to project a leftist identity.

Diplomatic sources speculate that the Chinese government may offer Sri Lanka more debt relief and investment opportunities during President Dissanayake’s visit to outmanoeuvre India. During talks with the Chinese leaders, Dissanayake and his team are also expected to identify new development projects that can be implemented in Sri Lanka.

For Sri Lanka, recovering from an economic crisis necessitates a non-confrontational approach to all major global powers, including India, China, and the United States. Balancing these relationships without getting caught in geopolitical rivalries remains a formidable challenge for President Dissanayake.

Sri Lanka, which is trying to recover from the economic crisis, cannot afford a partisan approach that could put it in conflict with any leading nation of the international community. Remaining non-confrontational and ensuring Sri Lanka does not get caught up in the geopolitical competition between China and India would be akin to walking a tightrope for President Dissanayake.

Along with India and China, the United States is also closely watching the activities of the NPP government, with the latter also interested in maintaining its strategic interests in Colombo.  In this backdrop, it is not surprising that Julie Chung, US Ambassador to Sri Lanka has emerged as the foreign diplomat who has met with President Dissanayake and the leaders of the NPP government the most number of times.

Balancing these relationships without getting caught in geopolitical rivalries remains a formidable challenge for President Dissanayake, who also faces mounting problems at home in fulfilling the many promises he made to the people during the elections.

-The writer is a senior journalist based in Colombo