From deluge to drought: El Niño threatens Sri Lanka with extreme weather shift

Weather
By Editor_1
Dark clouds loom over the sky in Colombo on Aug 8, 2026. Heavy rains and severe drought are likely to hit Sri Lanka in the coming months as the largely agricultural nation faces its “worst” ever El Nino climate phenomenon - AFP/File

COLOMBO – Sri Lanka is likely to experience above-normal rainfall during October and November, followed by significantly drier conditions early next year, as El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean continue to intensify, the Department of Meteorology warned on Friday (11).

Speaking at a media briefing, Director-General of Meteorology Ajith Wijemanne said the probability of an El Niño event occurring has increased from the previously forecast 69% to 75%.

He said there was a 98% probability of the phenomenon developing into a strong El Niño event between October and December, potentially making it one of the most significant such events recorded in recent decades.

According to the Department of Meteorology, El Niño conditions have strengthened over the past month, with global forecasts indicating unusually high sea-surface temperatures in key monitoring regions of the Pacific Ocean.

Although Sri Lanka is expected to receive relatively low rainfall over the next two weeks, rainfall is forecast to gradually increase from late September and spread across the island.

The Department expects above-normal rainfall across Sri Lanka during October and November, coinciding with the Second Inter-Monsoon season.

Stressing that El Niño should not be understood simply as a phenomenon that brings drought, Wijemanne explained that an El Niño event represents a significant shift in normal weather and monsoon patterns, noting that its impact on Sri Lanka varies depending on the country’s seasonal rainfall cycle.

However, following the expected period of heavy rainfall, precipitation across much of the island is forecast to decline significantly from January through March next year, with dry conditions possibly extending into April.

The prolonged reduction in rainfall could increase the risk of severe water shortages in several parts of the country.

Wijemanne urged authorities to make effective use of the anticipated rains in the coming months by maximizing water storage in reservoirs and other water bodies and implementing proper water-management measures ahead of the expected dry period.

He said a Cabinet-appointed committee on El Niño, comprising relevant state institutions, is meeting regularly to assess the developing situation and coordinate preparedness measures.

He also warned that temperatures were likely to remain relatively high during the coming months amid rising global temperatures.

Both daytime and nighttime temperatures are expected to remain elevated, Wijemanne said, adding that the arrival of increased rainfall may not necessarily result in a significant reduction in prevailing temperatures.

–ENCL

Editor_1
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