Sri Lanka faces heightened flood, agriculture risks as strong El Niño develops

Climate
By Editor_1
Dark clouds loom over the sky in Colombo on Aug 8, 2026. Heavy rains and severe drought are likely to hit Sri Lanka in the coming months as the largely agricultural nation faces its “worst” ever El Nino climate phenomenon - AFP/File

COLOMBO – Sri Lanka has been placed among countries requiring close monitoring as a potentially historic El Niño event strengthens across the Asia-Pacific region, with the country facing the risk of above-average rainfall, flooding and disruptions to agriculture later this year.

A new regional assessment by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), World Food Program (WFP), UN Women, World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) has categorized Sri Lanka as a country of ‘elevated concern’ due to the expected climate and economic impacts.

The assessment warns that Sri Lanka could experience wetter-than-normal conditions during the latter part of 2026, particularly from October onwards, when the Second Inter-Monsoon period begins, followed by the Northeast Monsoon.

While increased rainfall could help replenish reservoirs, improve water availability and support irrigation, excessive rainfall could increase the risk of flooding, waterlogging and damage to crops, the report said.

The outlook is particularly significant for the upcoming Maha cultivation season, Sri Lanka’s main rice-growing season, which begins between September and November.

Excessive rainfall during planting and early cultivation could delay agricultural activities, damage crops and increase flood-related losses. At the same time, improved rainfall could help restore depleted water storage and irrigation systems in areas affected by the current dry conditions.

Sri Lanka’s vulnerability is heightened by its historical association with wetter-than-average conditions during major El Niño events, according to the assessment.

The report said the current El Niño could rank among the strongest on record and potentially persist well into 2027. It also noted that a potentially positive Indian Ocean Dipole could add to the region’s increasingly complex climate outlook.

Unlike several countries in the region where drought is the main concern, Sri Lanka is among those where excessive rainfall is considered the more significant climate-related threat.

The assessment also warns of a broader ‘convergence risk’, with climate-related threats potentially coinciding with economic pressures arising from the continuing crisis in the Middle East.

Sri Lanka remains exposed to higher fuel, fertilizer and food costs, with the report noting that diesel prices are around 44% above pre-crisis levels and gasoline prices approximately 41% higher.

Higher agricultural input costs could coincide with excessive rainfall and flooding during the Maha season, placing additional pressure on farmers and food production, the report said. Sri Lanka’s reliance on imported fertilizer and international commodity markets, including wheat, further increases its vulnerability to global price volatility.

The wider regional assessment warns that the combined effects of climate disruption, higher energy and fertilizer costs and rising food prices could increase food insecurity across Asia and the Pacific. The WFP estimates that a further 8.2 million people could face acute food insecurity in monitored countries if conditions deteriorate.

Despite the risks, the UN agencies said there was still a critical window for governments and humanitarian organizations to strengthen preparedness and take anticipatory action before widespread impacts emerge.

In Sri Lanka, authorities are already dealing with the effects of dry weather in some areas.

Anuradhapura District Secretary Ranjith Wimalasooriya said several reservoirs in the district had dried up due to the prevailing dry conditions.

Deputy Minister of Agriculture Namal Karunaratne has said the government is taking measures to provide compensation to farmers whose agricultural lands had been affected by El Niño-related conditions.

–ENCL

Editor_1
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