If the victory of the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)-led National People’s Power (NPP) coalition candidate Anura Kumara Dissanayake in the presidential election in September had been indicative of the churn in Sri Lankan politics, the emphatic validation of the Marxist-Leninist coalition in the recent general election marks another landmark shift in the country’s ethnic equations. For the first time in Sri Lanka’s history, hardline Tamil areas such as Jaffna and Vanni, epicentres of the 26-year-long ethnic strife in the country, have voted overwhelmingly for the JVP, a Sinhala-Buddhist party. The NPP has also made significant inroads in the centre, in areas where Tamil plantation workers reside, and in the Muslim-majority east. Riding on the plank of ethnic and economic equality, the victory has given President Dissanayake’s alliance a thumping two-third majority in parliament.

For New Delhi, a stable government in the neighbourhood offers a renewed opportunity to strengthen regional cooperation and safeguard strategic interests. Its cordial outreach to Dissanayake in the run-up to and aftermath of his presidential victory and the visit of External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar last month show a judicious pragmatism. There have been concerns over Sri Lanka’s growing proximity to China, especially its lease of the Hambantota Port on the Indian Ocean and Beijing’s investment in infrastructure projects in the country. However, Dissanayake’s scepticism towards foreign investments — his party has also been critical of the Adani Group’s wind power project in Sri Lanka — may lead to a renegotiation of external relations. Given their shared history, deepening bilateral ties will benefit both India and Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka stands to gain from exchanges with India’s growing economy; Dissanayake’s recent endorsement of Tamil rights and the victory statistics could allay some of India’s concerns — India has long pushed for the implementation of the 13th Amendment which promises power devolution to the Tamil minority in Sri Lanka.

The spotlight will now be on Dissanayake, 55, an outsider to Sri Lanka’s dynastic politics and a key figure in the 2022 ‘Aragalaya’ (protests) against the Gotabaya Rajapaksa government for corruption and economic mismanagement. Despite the $2.9 billion IMF bailout package, Sri Lanka’s economy remains precarious — an estimated 25.9 per cent of its citizens were below the poverty line in 2023; the World Bank expects its economy to grow by a mere 2.2 per cent in 2024. In his election campaigns, Dissanayake had promised economic and political reforms, including the abolition of the executive presidency, and a renegotiation with the IMF to lessen the tax burden on citizens. In September, with only three seats and limited legislative power, it had appeared to be a daunting task. After his coalition’s victory in the general elections, Dissanayake will face more scrutiny.

-indianexpress.com