By Christina Goldbaum

KABUL — For most of the three years since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan, their erasure of women’s rights appeared to be setting them on course for near-total isolation in the world.

Western and Islamic countries alike condemned the group’s most extreme strictures, particularly on girls’ education. Messages by Taliban officials that their government was eager to engage with the world were ignored. To this day, no country officially recognizes the Taliban as the lawful authorities in Afghanistan.

But in recent months, the political winds have begun to shift in the Taliban’s favour.

Dozens of countries have welcomed Taliban diplomats. Some have sent high-ranking officials to Kabul to build diplomatic ties and secure trade and investment deals. Taliban officials have won temporary reprieves from travel bans. There has even been talk of removing the group from international terrorist lists.

The diplomatic activity reflects a subtle but significant shift toward normalizing the Taliban as political leaders and away from treating them as insurgents. It also reflects a growing consensus among world leaders that the Taliban government is here to stay.

Which countries are building ties with the Taliban?

In January, China became the first country to formally welcome a Taliban diplomat as Afghanistan’s ambassador — a title typically reserved for envoys whose countries are formally recognized on the world stage. The United Arab Emirates followed suit in August.

Many experts saw the moves as paving the way for the Taliban’s government to eventually earn formal recognition from the two countries.

Also in August, Uzbekistan sent its prime minister to Kabul, the highest-level foreign visit to Afghanistan since the Taliban seized power. The Russian Foreign Ministry announced this spring that the Kremlin was considering removing the Taliban from its list of designated terrorist organizations, which would make it the first country to do so.

Taliban officials have scored victories in another contested political battleground too: Afghanistan’s diplomatic missions around the globe. After the US-backed Afghan government collapsed in 2021, its diplomats still ran the country’s embassies and consulates — and often lobbied their host countries for policies opposed by the Taliban.

But last month, the Taliban’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs announced that about 40 Afghan embassies and consulates now answered to its government. Control over those diplomatic missions signals the Taliban government’s authority in Afghanistan and gives the group a voice in countries where many top Taliban leaders cannot visit because of international travel bans.

What about the West? 

Western countries have led the charge in denouncing the Taliban’s treatment of women, hoping to pressure the group into reversing some of its most contentious policies.

American officials have stuck to their hard and fast red lines on women’s rights, emphasizing that the United States will not lift sanctions or remove Taliban officials from its blacklists until the restrictions are eased.

But the United States has become an outlier. As Taliban officials have made clear that they will not bow to outside pressure, more European leaders and international organizations have appeared to accept the limits of their influence and engage on issues where they can find common ground.

In June, United Nations officials secured the Taliban’s attendance at a conference on Afghanistan by deferring talk of women’s rights. The Taliban had previously refused to attend two similar UN conferences.

In recent months, Afghan embassies and consulates across Europe have faced increased pressure from their host countries to answer to the Taliban government, according to three officials with knowledge of the deliberations.

The Afghan Embassies in Britain and Norway opted to close last month. The ambassador to Britain, who had been appointed by the old US-backed Afghan government, said in a statement that the embassy was shutting down “at the official request of the host country.”

Leaders of European countries are motivated to engage with the Taliban by two fears: that waves of Afghan migrants will enter Europe if there is turmoil in Afghanistan, and that terrorism could emanate from Afghanistan and reach Europe.

What does this mean for Afghanistan?

The growing diplomatic acceptance has created trade and investment opportunities — injections of cash that have been badly needed since the US-backed government collapsed.

Over the past year, the Taliban have issued dozens of contracts to tap into the country’s mineral wealth. Private companies from the region have also scored deals to build infrastructure across Afghanistan — a link between Central and South Asian trade routes — that could help revive its economy and score points for the Taliban among the public.

The new diplomatic embrace has also eased the pressure to roll back the restrictions on women — a victory for the Taliban, but a major blow for many Afghan women.

-New York Times