Treading a fine line in big power rivalries

A Sri Lankan view of problems small nations face in the Indian Ocean Region

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By Editor_1
-indianexpress.com
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By P.K. Balachandran

COLOMBO – Small nations, which are located in strategically important places, have the unenviable task of managing big power rivalries. On the one hand, their geographical positioning is a boon because world powers seek their goodwill and could shower some benefits. But on the other hand, the location makes them vulnerable to military action or dubious blandishments which have the potential to abridge their sovereignty, even to the point of extinction.

These concerns were succinctly stated by the Sri Lankan Foreign Secretary and former Navy Commander Adm. Prof. Jayanath Colombage at the Pathfinder Indian Ocean Security Webinar held recently.

The former navy chief regretted the militarization of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) and the deleterious impact of securitization and militarization on the economies of the littoral States, especially the economies of small States, noting that latter lack human, material and financial resources for development and need fruitful connections with the world through the oceans.

Colombage asked, “Shouldn’t we be focusing of economic and social development and achieving Sustainable Development Goals by the target year of 2030?”, going on to point out that the Asian Development Bank (ADB) had estimated that the infrastructure needs of Asia and the Pacific would exceed US$ 22.6 trillion through 2030. If the required funds are not provided, there would be difficulty in achieving sustainable development goals, he warned.

“We can witness a slowing down of economies and socio-economic tensions. Human emotions could rise high and create fear and insecurity. This also results in extreme forms of nationalism. There is, and there will be, interruptions to Global Supply Chains,” he said.

Quad and BRI

Although the IOR has historically been important, there are now two new factors of gigantic importance, he pointed out. Firstly, there is the Indo- Pacific Strategy of the US, India, Japan and Australia, called the Quad. Secondly, there is China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The Quad is essentially defence and security-oriented, and the BRI is essentially economic, based on trade, infrastructure development and investment.

However, the US and its allies propagate the notion that the BRI’s development work is but a fig leaf to cover China’s security agenda and is a thinly veiled effort to enslave recipient countries by trapping them in unmanageable debt.

Sri Lanka’s case

Stating Sri Lanka’s case, Colombage said it wishes to have a free and open Indian Ocean with a rules-based maritime order to carry out  maritime commerce, the development of maritime related infrastructure and establish connections to the global supply chain across the oceans. However, the development agenda has taken a backseat and the IOR has become an arena for strategic competition between the Big Powers, he bemoans.

“I like to call it a competition for RMB – Resources, Markets and (military) Bases. More and more governments, organizations and institutions worldwide are making the Indo-Pacific their conceptual frame of reference and thus the basis of their policies. However, they differ in terms of their objectives and emphasis on different policy fields,” Colombage noted.

The Quad’s resolve to dominate Indo-Pacific high seas is being questioned, he pointed out. The Quad is portraying itself as the principle driver of Indian Ocean maritime security. But Colombage wondered if the Quad is preparing for a ‘Cool War’ (a 21st.Century version of the 20th Century ‘Cold War’) behind the smokescreen of a laudable concern for free and unfettered navigation. Colombage contended that no single country can be the net-security provider in the IOR, observing that the insecurity of one country is leading to insecurity of others and that because insecurities play such a dominant role in devising nations’ strategies the IOR is characterized by increasing military/naval activity.

According to Colombage, the IOR is one of the most militarized oceans in the world, with 575 warships from 29 different countries visiting Sri Lanka alone, from 2008 to 2020.

With South Asia being militarily, politically and economically, a dynamic region, sorely lacking a security consensus and regional interdependence, the bedrock of a security consensus, the IOR is characterized by a ‘huge mistrust and trust deficiency’. There is also strategic ambiguity. On top of it all, the IOR is also a nuclearized region with two nuclear powers, India and Pakistan, having had violent confrontations several times in the last 72 years.

The impact of geographic proximity to large nuclear powers is greatly felt in smaller countries such as Sri Lanka, the former naval chief pointed out, cautioning that the  security of an innocent small State could be gravely affected as a consequence of someone else’s war.

According to Colombage, in the present context, the most important question to ask is: What is the purpose of free and open navigation? Is it for waging war and jockeying for power in the IOR or is it for a free flow of trade, investment, development and cooperation?

Stating Sri Lanka’s position on this matter, Colombage said: “We do believe we need a rules-based order, as the survival of the State is most important for Sri Lanka. A rule-based order is one way to overcome problems of asymmetry. Sri Lanka is a small State and does not have any hegemonic intentions. We believe in multilateralism and not in unilateralism and do not like to see securitization of maritime trade and development.

“Conversely, we wish to see a balance of power and not hegemonic power. We also would like to convey that Sri Lanka is not a piece of ‘Real Estate’ (to be parcelled out among rival powers). Please respect Sri Lanka’s national interests.”

Five principles to ensure independence

Colombage proposed a five-point program to sustain the independence of small States:

“In order to overcome being caught in the great power rivalry in the Indian Ocean, Sri Lanka has five pillars to its foreign policy. One is Neutrality. Technically, we are a non-aligned country, but we wish to remain neutral, at the same time maintaining friendly relations with everyone, which is number two. The third is not to get caught in major power games. We do not like to ‘hedge’ or ‘choose’ between States or jump on to one or the other of the bandwagons. We need to maintain strategic autonomy in the Indian Ocean. The fourth point is that Sri Lanka will not cede control of its strategic assets to foreign concerns. Investment, according to Sri Lanka’s vision articulated in President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s‘ Vistas of Prosperity and Splendour’, should be in FDIs and joint ventures. But they should not lead to take overs. The Fifth point is, Sri Lanka does not want to be a strategic security concern to India, especially in maritime and air domains.”

-ENCL

 

Ships from the Indian navy, Japan Maritime Self Defence Force and US Navy get into formation for a gunnery live-fire exercise as part of Exercise Malabar – US Navy photo by Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Joe Bishop

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